CNNIC Spots over half a billion Mobile Internet users in China


CaixinOnline using data from the China Internet Network Information Center (CNNIC) are reporting that mobile internet users in China at June this year stood at 527 million of whom 480 million used smartphones. The total mobile internet access figures exceeded those accessing via a PC for the first time.

The year on year growth at 13.6% is well down on 2013 which was 19.6%. Further falls are anticipated as the market saturates.

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Our header graphic is from a ping of all devices on the internet carried out by the Internet of Things search engine Shodan.

Here’s the mightily impressive full version.

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Will you pass your DQ test?

Ofcom  in connection with the publication today of the eleventh edition of its Communications Market Report (CMR) has included both the results of its research into the Digital Quotient of our population as well as a somewhat shortened test so that you can quickly (3 minutes they claim) come up with your own level.

TAKE THE TEST

It consists of 18 questions with a maximum score of about 144 we reckon but to achieve that you will have to use a Smartwatch a 3D printer and glasses!

The overall average at 100 we reckon converts to a percentage of just under 70% and the “with it” 14-15 year olds just under 80%. Everybody passes with even the 75+’s scoring 55%.

We may return to the full UK report at a later stage to comment on some of its 429 pages and the consistently colourful charts

Report links:

Both Tablet Growth, and PC Decline Slow, but Should Crossover This Year

The premier global provider of market intelligence in the technology sector IDC yesterday, came out with their tablet shipment estimate for the first quarter of 2014 which at 50.4 million units was a bit lower than the other two estimates released so far. It shows we reckon a 3.7% increase year on year although they calculate it at 3.9%!

The top 5 are predictable but we wonder if Amazon with their Kindle Fires could now get up to around the 2 million a quarter level outside the year end holiday festivus.

Digitimes are already forecasting quarter 2 to show growth of nearly 5% over Q1 reaching over 61 million units which would be the second highest quarter in history. Interestingly they estimate white box shipments to have been 20.4 million units (35% of their total) in Q1 and reckon this could rise to 23.3 million in Q2 which would be a Q on Q increase of 14.4% indicating that their growth continues to outstrip branded tablets.

Whilst our view that tablet shipments might outstrip PCs in the last quarter of 2013 failed to materialise we reckon it will now definitely happen this year!

Our header graphic relies entirely on IDC data.

UK Device Usage Reminder for Traditional Broadcasters

Ofcom produced the latest in their line of rather colourful reports yesterday. It’s the Adults’ Media Use and Attitudes Report 2014 (pdf). For adults read 16 & over and for 2014 read late 2013!

Their headlines/press releases, which were picked up by the media, highlighted the increased usage of devices by the silver surfers as they are affectionately known by the Mail Online amongst many others,  BUT what caught our attention was the demographics in particular of the Most Missed Media responses.

The overall top 3 devices being chosen as being those most missed at 79% being the TV Smartphone and Online devices (computer, laptop, netbook tablet etc). Across all demographics this total varies between 72% and 83%.

BUT and it’s a big one the TV constituent v’s the online devices including smartphones which overall is about 50/50 (42%/37%) starts with the 16-24 year old group at 13%/65% only going above half with the 45-54 year olds.

This group also figured as  the most increased users of tablets compared to last year increasing from 19% to 44% and on the smartphone front the next group 45-54 year olds were found to be the top increased usage going up from 46% to 66%. As they adopt surely they will increasingly, more likely, be able to do without their TV’s for content!

Smart TV’s have been added to the list of devices added to online access this year and make a pretty impressive start at 9%. We wonder if they include all streaming devices which are another online content source

Undoubtedly much more in the 95 pages of the report

The arrows in the charts relate to any significance testing between 2012 and 2013.    

We check our devices for updates at least every half hour

KANA software a leading customer service solution provider recently acquired by Verint have done some recent representative polling of UK adults to check the frequency that we  check our devices by age, gender and activity.

Unsurprisingly the younger you are, in general, the more frequent is your response apart from the 55-64 year olds who possibly haven’t got time as they prepare for retirement!

In terms of what we are checking on various devices and their frequency the dreaded email heads the list although Twitter is up there near the top well ahead of facebook.

Most frequently checked devices – all age groups
Min/secs
Email on smartphone  36.00
Twitter for replies 39.00
Phones for texts 48.00
Missed calls 49.25
PC or laptop for email 54.00
Facebook for messages 57.00
Checking voicemail  65.00
Source: Kana
Compilation: I.co.uk

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Scarily we apparently spend 14 days a year complaining or waiting to complain. KANA explain “The average UK adult spends a “fraughtnight” — or nearly two weeks — each year waiting for service, making complaints and using digital channels to direct their ire at companies that provide poor service.

The average UK consumer has used 7.4 channels of electronic communication in the past six months. Amongst 18-to-24 year olds, this figure rises to 8.4 channels. The figure is lowest in the 65+ age bracket, but even this age band uses 6.2 methods of electronic communication.”

Tablet sales below PCs in Q4 2013

Digitimes Research are first out of the blocks just ahead of Apple’s results due to be announced Mons0day January 27 with their tablet forecasts.

At an overall level  of 78.5 million we think they may be on the low side and would mean that they still just lag PC shipments in the quarter which we reported on earlier at an estimated 82.2

Apple in Q4 2012 sold 22.9 million iPads and, in spite of some of the shipment delays they encountered this year, we will be uber surprised if they fell short of this number. Our favourite Apple financial reporter Philip Elmer-DeWitt is, as usual, gathering together a large number if analysts forecasts and reports the overall average to be 25 million.

Digitimes reckon the white box constituent of the total was 33.8% of the total which is virtually all of the Other category. Android they report at 51.2% of the total and Windows 3.9%.

The screen size wars again see the smaller ones dominating with 58.3% being 8” or less.

Many more estimates to come which we shall report back on in due course.

Smartphones grow while PCs and Tablets Flatline

Deloitte have just produced their 2014 predictions for the TMT Sector – Technology, Media and Telecommunications. You can download the full 64 page report (pdf) or peruse it all at your leisure on their site.

In the Technology sector they highlight revenues and predict a global figure of $750 billion for TVs, PCs, Smartphones, Video Game Consoles and Tablets this year.

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They see a stratification of the tablet market basically on size and reckon that in installed base terms < 8.5” devices will exceed > 8.5” ones during this quarter.

We noticed from the graph that in reality the ONLY revenue growth area of significance is smartphones as demonstrated in our cut down and edited version of their graph (apologies if they object). We’ve grouped the similarly coloured PCs and Tablets which show virtually a flatish line scenario around the $200-250 billion level from around 2006. Smartphones grow from zero in 2000 to exploding to become the largest constituent by 2013. Wearables incidentally they predict to generate $3 billion in rewvenues this year.

Interesting!

We’ll leave you with their Overview filmed at CES.

 

Tablets likely overtake PC Shipments as they show further decline

Both IDC  and Gartner released their Q4 PC shipment estimates towards the end of last week and they were pretty similar:

  • Gartner 82.6 million
  • IDC 82.2 million

Positions 1-5 by vendor were identical:

  1. Lenovo
  2. HP
  3. Dell
  4. Acer
  5. Asus

An interesting comment from Gartner indicating that they think the decline may have now bottomed out. We’re not sure about that.An ongoing small decline is our current guess

Gartner say:

“Although PC shipments continued to decline in the worldwide market in the fourth quarter, we increasingly believe markets, such as the U.S., have bottomed out as the adjustment to the installed base slows,” said Mikako Kitagawa, principal analyst at Gartner. “Strong growth in tablets continued to negatively impact PC growth in emerging markets. In emerging markets, the first connected device for consumers is most likely a smartphone, and their first computing device is a tablet. As a result, the adoption of PCs in emerging markets will be slower as consumers skip PCs for tablets.”

On the tablet front, as we await Q4 figures, we still think that including white box shipments they will exceed PC’s for the first time this quarter whilst on an annual basis they will likely overtake them towards the end of the calendar year. We shall see!

Our graph uses IDC figures available publicly with revisions where published..

7.4 Billion Mobiles to be Shipped 2012-2015

Gartner have just come up with their first 2014 forecast of device (PCs, tablets, ultramobiles and mobile phones) shipments through 2015.

Apart from a rather confusing/interesting classification of hybrids and clamshells which has the highest growth rate of all (but from a very low base) the highlights we reckon are:

  • Tablets NOT overtaking PC’s on an annual basis until 2015
  • A reducing negative growth rate for PC’s sort of, halving in both 2014 and 2015
  • A reducing growth rate for Tablets  sort of, halving in both 2014 and 2015
  • Mobiles nearly reaching 2 billion shipments in 2015
  • Mobile shipments in the timeframe 2012-2015 totaling just over the worlds population at 7.4 billion

Gartner draws our attention to:

  • Nearly 2.5 billion device shipments in 2014 which is a 7.6% increase on last year
  • Worldwide tablet market growth in 2014 47% with smaller screens and lower average prices being significant drivers

They also provide unit shipments by operating system which shows the rise and rise of android more than doubling its market share from 23% in 2012 to 48% in 2015!

2014 and all that …

We’ve found the corporate crystal ball, dusted it off, spent the first few days of the year peering into its fathomless interior and have come up with the following:

  1. Tablet unit shipments/sales, having drawn level with PCs in the final quarter of 2013, will on an annual basis overtake them in the year as a whole achieving around 300 million shipments including the white box variety which will flourish.
  2. Nominet will launch their .uk domain release in the summer. It will prove a remarkable success with millions of the new shorter, slicker and simpler domains being taken up by existing registrants in the first quarter of their availability.
  3. The new ICANN  gTLD’s will continue to proliferate but initial unit sales will prove to be disappointing.
  4. Internet Retail Sales will continue to grow apace reaching over 11% of all retail during the year. The Office for National Statistics will introduce an improved analysis of these sales in the second half of the year.
  5. As previously predicted Apple will launch their iWatch before mid year and their iTV (with a different name) in the fall. Apple will make a major acquisition in connection with it’s 2014 product releases.
  6. Apple’s share price will remain in the $500-$650 range in spite of a return to some revenue growth.
  7. Sky will introduce another named streaming service to compliment Sky Go and Now but it won’t be called Start!
  8. The rise & rise of Amazon will continue but Jeff Bezos will not buy another main stream media publication although his wife may release another book!
  9. StrengthsFinder 2.0 will remain in the WSJ top ten hardback bestselling books for at least 50% of the year.
  10. Twitter will gain a lot of ground particularly on the advertising front. Its share price will jut rise and rise!
  11. Native advertising will gain many converts and hence will proliferate accordingly..
  12. CES and LeWeb will both spring major surprises.
  13. UK overall rainfall will be above the 1981-2010 average of just over 1.15 metres but we will have a brilliant early summer!
  14. We will win one of the home cricket test series this summer and a new captain of one of our teams will be announced.

We will in about 360 days review our predictions and invest in an improved crystal ball if necessary for 2015.