Did the UK Spend 2/3 as much as the US online on Black Friday?

With bonanza figures appearing on both sides of the Atlantic it appears that it could be the case.

comScore have already released their desktop E-commerce spend figures for both Black Friday and Cyber Monday and they show increases of 25.6% and 17.5% over last year.

The M-commerce (smartphone & tablet) figures are still to come from comScore but we previously estimated they would reach $400 million this year which at an increase over last year of some 29% may be conservative!

Over here Giles Longhurst, general manager consumer insight at Experian, said: “Black Friday exceeded expectations for retailers, seeing a record breaking 180m website visits and an approximate £810m spent online in a 24 hour period.

This 60pc year-on-year increase in visit numbers to retail websites clearly shows that both British shoppers and British retailers have fully embraced the Black Friday trend. With such a massive amount of money and time being spent online, shoppers have really begun the Christmas retail season with a bang.”

Quite so!

So doing a little arithmetic we reckon the US Black Friday figure including our estimated M-commerce spend ($400) comes in at $1,905.

The UK figure of £810 at an exchange rate of $1.567 = £1 comes out at $1.27 billion which our calculator reckons represents 66.66% of the US figure.

To get another perspective on this if we look at the Office for National Statistics figures (non seasonally adjusted). The WEEKLY December 2013 figure was estimated to be £960.2 million. We calculate that the average increase this year through October is around 12% so if December also increases at this rate we could be looking at a figure of £1.1 billion or $1.7 billion or just under $0.25 a day.

This would, sort of, indicate that Black Friday was 5X the average daily figure. Hmmmmmmmmmm

Lies, damned lies & ……………. Comes to mind.

Subjectively we think the ONS figures are under scoped but possibly not to the extent being indicated

Happy Cyber Monday & Some Spendfest Perspectives

Well it’s here!

Estimates around the £650 million mark for UK online sales today come from Experian but we are somewhat sceptical. Apparently Black Friday may have reached £600 million.

Amazon have released some item sales figures which show an increase of 37.5% year-on-year on Black Friday (even their UK press release comes from Luxembourg!). Their best sellers “…have included the Kindle Fire HDX 7” range with £100 off selected models, as well as the Dolce Gusto Mini Me Coffee Capsule Machine, Toy Story Ultimate Action Buzz Lightyear, diamond jewellery and men’s watches.”

IBM have published their Thanksgiving & Black Friday report (pdf) about what happened over there.

One difference between the UK & the US is the increase between Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Using comScores figures over the last nine years through 2013 shows an average increase of Monday vs Friday of just under 50% whereas using Amazon UK’s unit figures only shows a marginal difference of some 2.5% last year. The 2 days though both here & over there we think are the most popular online shopping days in the year although Experian thinks that Manic Monday (Decmber 8 ) over here may be the most hectic day of all!

Enjoy!

Black Friday Live

IBM – ExperienceOne Benchmark

 

Thanks for giving us Black Friday

It is increasingly a Black Friday over here tomorrow and the Centre for Retail Research has told us thsat they are forecasting online UK sales of £363 million tomorrow. In the USA the situation is covered  particularly well by comScore to whom we are indebted for the majority of our figures.

Historically online desktop information has been prevalent and we’re staying with this for our basic forecast.

As mobile purchases become increasingly significant we have also done an estimate on this front.

Our forecasts owe much to comScores seasons overview on likely increases.

Elsewhere Visa reckoned that UK purchases on their cards could run at £6,000 a second tomorrow which on our calculator comes to about £518 million in a day. If they represented say a third of all purchases then a total of £1.6 billion might be spent. Allegedly one in four purchases is made online so that might amount to £400 million which is not a million miles away from the forecast we have been given.sounds too high to us! The US may reach $1.75 billion so on a per capita adjusted basis this just might be talking up to £200 million.

On any further discovery we will add to our UK stats.

October Internet Sales Decline and may be Flatlining

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) yesterday published the the monthly retail sales figures for October (pdf) Full details  are available on the ONS site.

Overall figures showed an increase in sales volumes of  0.8% (including fuel) on last month which according to Bloomberg was greater than its estimate of 0.3% obtained in a news survey of  23 economists. “Prices as measured by the retail-sales deflator fell an annual 1.5 percent in October, the biggest decline since 2002. Prices of auto fuel dropped 4.3 percent to the lowest level since 2010.”

The ONS on their preferred quarterly view noted continuing growth ” The three-month on three-month movement in the quantity bought showed continued growth for the twentieth consecutive month increasing by 0.4%. This was the longest period of sustained growth since November 2007 when there were 25 periods of consecutive growth..”

All the internet figures we quote are now the new seasonally adjusted statistics issued by the ONS. January 2014 was the one year in six when an extra week occurs statistically and we have annotated our headline graph to show an approximately comparable level of sales.

Our Internet sales headlines:

  • Internet sales fell back again this month (0.6%) for the fifth time this year.
  • The seasonally adjusted figures start from 2008 and in the 6 previous years a maximum of 3 monthly falls occurred in each of 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013.
  • This is the seventh consecutive month when internet sales have been above 11%.
  • The Non Store Retailing sector which includes the likes of Amazon and other wholly online retailers seems to be levelling out rather than showing an increase and since its peak in May at over £360 million per week seems to be stuck in a range of between £352 – £357 million.
  • Internet food sales continue at close to their all time high again this month at 3.8% of all food sales. and reached  over £112 million for the second consecutive month.
  • For every £1 spent in the online retail sector 49 pence was spent on non-store retailing 36 pence in non food stores and 15 pence in food stores!
  • We do think the ONS needs to do more analysis of internet sales as already half are effectively categorised as sales by online retailers virtually irrespective of the underlying goods or services! These average YoY growth figures of over 20% but now show signs of  the beginning of negative growth.

October and year to date stats for internet sales:

  • Months sales 11.2% (11.3% last month 10.7 % a year ago) of all retail sales
  • Monthly year on year increase of 7.5% (9.2% last month 18.5% a year ago)
  • Year to date increase on 2013 is 12.1% (12.6% last month)
  • Moving Annual total increases (1) on September 2014 annualised +5.6% (2) on October 2013 +14.4%
  • The UK’s *largest online retailer is included in the group Non-store retailing and this sector shows growth of 9.2% on 2013 this month and accounts for nearly 50% of all online retail sales. This is an area which SHOULD just grow & grow unless further analysis is undertaken of this channel!

The ONS words this month are:

Key points

The proportion of sales made online fell by 0.1% to account for 11.2% of all sales in October 2014. Online sales increased by 7.5% compared with October 2013, this was the lowest year-on-year increase since November 2012 (6.9%).

Internet Sales in Detail

Seasonally adjusted Internet sales data are provided within this release. These seasonally adjusted estimates are published in the RSI internet tables and include:

  • a seasonally adjusted value index, and
  • year-on-year and month-on-month growth rates.

Internet sales are estimates of how much was spent online through retailers across all store types in Great Britain. The reference year is 2011=100.

Key Points:

Average weekly spending online in October 2014 was £719.6 million. This was an increase of 7.5% compared with October 2013. This is the lowest year-on-year increase since November 2012 when it was 6.9%.

  • The amount spent online accounted for 11.2% of all retail spending excluding automotive fuel, compared with 10.7% in October 2013.
  • The online spend in other stores decreased by 18.2% compared with October 2013. This is the lowest year-on-year spend in this store type since December 2011 when it fell by 20.5%.

Table 4 shows the year-on-year growth rates for total Internet sales by sector and the proportion of sales made online in each retail sector.

Internet Sales

Table 4: Summary of Internet Statistics for October 2014 (seasonally adjusted)

We have added our annotations to the ONS table – The bold categories/ figures in the table are the primary constituents of the total (ie (a) + (b) + (c) = All retailing). Dept. stores, Textile etc, Household etc and Other stores are simply an analysis of (b) All non-food.

We have also added the weekly Internet sales figures by sector and the proportion they represent of all online sales.

Sector summary

The non-store retailing sector comprises of stalls and markets, mail order and those retailers that sell mainly online.

+ Whilst the ONS will not confirm the names of specific retailers within categories they did say that retailers selling wholly online with no physical outlets would be included in the Non store retailing category along with eg online  mail order retailers.

Click to enlarge

The moving annual total, which we report, moved up again (it has increased EVERY MONTH since January 2009  to an all time high of £37.4 billion an increase in the month  of  0.5% annualised 5.6%. The average this year is 14%. The long term compound average growth rate is around 15%.

Click to enlarge

The published weekly figure was £719.6 million which was well below our expectations but we only just fell short of  the moving annual total which  came out £0.1 billion below our estimate.

The average monthly increase this year is now about 0.5% but has been negative in 3 out of the last 4 months. We are optimistically looking for a seasonal recovery above average an increase of around 0.75%  next month so we’re  going for £725 million in November and a moving annual total of about £37.7 billion.

We have again included our experimental graph (e & o e!) showing the relative internet and non-internet, moving annual total, sales from late 2009 by month. As before it highlights that high street sales have been and continue to go nowhere! As, we have mentioned before, the Boston Consulting Group forecast  in their report (The $4.2 Trillion opportunity) that this trend is likely to continue with the high streets market share contracting at around 2.75% a year from 2010 through 2016. Due to the exceptional 5 week month in Jan 2014 there is a 6 yearly jump to allow for the 53rd week!

Further details and explanations are either in the ONS release on the statistics or on their website. As previously mentioned a retail convention of a 4, 4, 5 week quarter is used by the ONS (March June September and December are 5 week months). To cater for the inconvenience of years not having 364 days every 6 years or so an extra week is included in the statistics. The ONS adds this in January which happened this year the previous one being in 2008.

September Internet Sales at all time high

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) published  at the end of last week the monthly retail sales figures for September (pdf) Full details  are available on the ONS site.

Overall figures showed a decrease in sales volumes of  0.3% (including fuel) on last month which according to Bloomberg was greater than its estimate of (0.1%) obtained in a news survey of 18 economists.  The weather returned to the fore with its warmth attracting blame for delays in Autumn / Winter clothes purchases.

The ONS on their preferred quarterly view noted, sort of, continuing but somewhat muted growth ” The underlying pattern continues to show growth with the rolling three-month on three-month growth rate increasing by 0.3%. However, this was the slowest growth seen in this measure throughout 2014.”

All the internet figures we quote are now the new seasonally adjusted statistics issued by the ONS. January 2014 was the one year in six when an extra week occurs statistically and we have annotated our headline graph to show an approximately comparable level of sales.

Our Internet sales headlines:

  • Internet sales back again to their all time high of 11.4% of all retail sales.
  • This is the sixth consecutive month when they have been above 11%.
  • After some significant revisions to previous months figures (in particular to non store retailing which eg last month was increased by over 6%) there does seem to be a slow down in overall internet sales this quarter with a growth rate of quarter on quarter of some 0.7% compared to a comparable figure last year of over 3%
  • The Non Store Retailing sector which includes the likes of Amazon and other wholly online retailers seems to be leveling out rather than showing an increase and since its peak in May at over £365 million per week seems to be stuck in a range of between £352 – £358 million.
  • Internet food sales reached an all time high again this month of 3.9% of all food sales.and reached  over £110 million for the first time.
  • For every £1 spent in the online retail sector 49 pence was spent on non-store retailing 36 pence in non food stores and 15 pence in food stores!
  • We do think the ONS needs to do more analysis of internet sales as already half are effectively categorised as sales by online retailers virtually irrespective of the underlying goods or services! These average YoY growth figures of over 20% but now show signs of  the beginning of negative growth

September, quarter 3 and year to date stats for internet sales:

  • Months sales 11.4% (11.4% last month 10.6 % a year ago) of all retail sales
  • Monthly year on year increase of 10.1% (13% last month 18% a year ago)
  • Quarter on quarter increase is 0.7% (last quarter 6.6% 2013 Q3 – 3.1%)
  • Year to date increase on 2013 is 12.7%
  • Moving Annual total increases (1) on August 2014 annualised +9.4% (2) on September 2013 +15.4%
  • The UK’s *largest online retailer is included in the group Non-store retailing and this sector shows growth of 13.5% on 2013 this month and accounts for nearly 50% of all online retail sales. This is an area which SHOULD just grow & grow unless further analysis is undertaken of this channel!

The ONS words this month are:

Key points

  • The proportion of online sales were unchanged in September 2014 compared with August 2014 at 11.4%. Online sales increased by 10.1% compared with September 2013.

Internet Sales in Detail

Seasonally adjusted Internet sales data are provided within this release. These seasonally adjusted estimates are published in the RSI internet tables and include:

  • a seasonally adjusted value index, and
  • year-on-year and month-on-month growth rates.

Internet sales are estimates of how much was spent online through retailers across all store types in Great Britain. The reference year is 2011=100.

Key Points:

  • Average weekly spending online in September 2014 was £731.8 million. This was an increase of 10.1% compared with September 2013.
  • The amount spent online accounted for 11.4% of all retail spending excluding automotive fuel, compared with 10.6% in September 2013.
  • The online spend in department stores increased by 7.0% compared with September 2013. This is the lowest year-on-year increase since November 2010 (6.3%).

Table 5 shows the year-on-year growth rates for total Internet sales by sector and the proportion of sales made online in each retail sector.

Internet Sales

Table 5: Summary of Internet Statistics for August 2014 (seasonally adjusted)

We have added our annotations to the ONS table – The bold categories/ figures in the table are the primary constituents of the total (ie (a) + (b) + (c) = All retailing). Dept. stores, Textile etc, Household etc and Other stores are simply an analysis of (b) All non-food.

We have also added the weekly Internet sales figures by sector and the proportion they represent of all online sales.

Sector summary

The non-store retailing sector comprises of stalls and markets, mail order and those retailers that sell mainly online.

+ Whilst the ONS will not confirm the names of specific retailers within categories they did say that retailers selling wholly online with no physical outlets would be included in the Non store retailing category along with eg online  mail order retailers.

Click to ...

The moving annual total, which we report, moved up again (it has increased EVERY MONTH since January 2009  to an all time high of £37.2 billion an increase in the month  of  0.9% annualised 9.4%. The average this year is 15%. The long term compound average growth rate is around 22%.

Click to ...

The published weekly figure was £731.8 million which was  in line with our expectations and due to historic revisions the moving annual total came out at £0.2 billion ahead of our estimate.

The average monthly increase this year is now about 0.8% but has been flat in the last quarter. we are optimistically looking for an increase of around 0.7%  next month so we’re  going for £735 million in October and a moving annual total of about £37.5 billion.

We have again included our experimental graph (e & o e!) showing the relative internet and non-internet, moving annual total, sales from late 2007 by month. As before it highlights that high street sales have been and continue to go nowhere! As, we have mentioned before, the Boston Consulting Group forecast  in their report (The $4.2 Trillion opportunity) that this trend is likely to continue with the high streets market share contracting at around 2.75% a year from 2010 through 2016. Due to the exceptional 5 week month in Jan 2014 there is a 6 yearly jump to allow for the 53rd week!

Further details and explanations are either in the ONS release on the statistics or on their website. As previously mentioned a retail convention of a 4, 4, 5 week quarter is used by the ONS (March June September and December are 5 week months). To cater for the inconvenience of years not having 364 days every 6 years or so an extra week is included in the statistics. The ONS adds this in January which happened this year the previous one being in 2008.

Cometh the Hour Cometh the Code

Code.org is organising its annual event during Sconce Education Week December 8-14 (2013 December 9-15) which has evolved from last years Hour of Code Challenge to simply the Hour of Code.

They are also looking to raise $5 million by crowdfunding.

It is very much a global movement involving 180+ countries and tutorials are available in 30 languages.

Get involved and join in.

Join the largest learning event in history
Pridružite se najvećem edukativnom događaju u povijesti
Mach mit bei der größten Lernveranstaltung in der Geschichte
ﺎﻨﻀﻣ ﺈﻟﻯ ﺄﻜﺑﺭ ﺡﺪﺛ ﺖﻌﻠﻴﻤﻳ ﻒﻳ ﺎﻠﺗﺍﺮﻴﺧ
iscriviti all’evento didattico più popolare del mondo
Tham gia sự kiện lớn nhất từ trước đến nay trong lịch sử
2014 年 12 月 8日ー14 日、歴史上最大の学習イベントに参加しよう。
O maior evento de aprendizagem da história
Присъединете се към най-голямото събитие за обучение в историята
Alăturaţi-vă celui mai mare eveniment educativ din istorie
Присоединяйтесь к крупнейшему учебному событию в истории
Bergabunglah dalam acara belajar terbesar dalam sejarah pada tanggal
Приєднуйтесь до найбільшої навчальної події в історії
Únete al evento de aprendizaje más grande en la historia
Λάβε μέρος στην μεγαλύτερη στην ιστορία εκδήλωση για την μάθηση

Click to enlarge - Interactive version at

 Hour of Code.

We’ll leave you with their video which is quite noisy!

Emergent Breaking News

Click to view current status

As we all know the internet is probably the most prolific conveyor of rumours in the universe!

Well Craig Silverman (a fellow with the Tow Center for Digital Journalism at Columbia University) is researching this seriously and is on a mission “ …to conduct research into how news organizations deal with rumours and unconfirmed information,  and to identify best practices for how journalists can debunk misinformation.

The result will be a research paper published in 2015, which will be available for free online. I will also be a launching a public-facing website where anyone can view the data being collected for the project.”

The website is Emergent.info where you can check up on many of the latest rumours to ascertain their status in terms of True, False, Unverified.

You can also  click on:

  • a story to visit a page that visualizes the sources reporting the rumor, and a breakdown of social shares per source.
  • individual articles on the story page to see specific revision and social share data about that article.

You can also even tweet your “unconfirmed reports” @EmergentDotInfo and get updates on current rumours status.

UPDATE: New York Times (the Upshot) article – Why Rumors Outrace the Truth Online

For regular updates on the project register here.

The UK Tech Cool Brands they are a-changin’!

CoolBrands® published their latest assessment  (2014-2015) of the Coolest UK brands earlier this week.

“The UK’s CoolBrands are chosen by an Expert Council of influencers and members of the British public. Brands do not apply or pay to be considered. The entire selection process is independently administered by The Centre for Brand Analysis.”

The results (pdf) and the selection criteria and some selected Brands and the Expert Panel details appear on their site.

Many of the of the previous incumbents have fallen out of the top 20 including Twitter, BBC’s iPlayer (shame), and Spotify and as far as we can see Amazon has disappeared altogether!

In the top twenty, Techs have dropped by one to a mere 6 this year but continue to have 4 in the top ten with netflix replacing twitter.

Apple continues its dominance retaining the #1 spot but what of 2015 – we shall see!.

The overall Tech content has increased somewhat in that, on our wide definition, it looks as if just under 8% this year (47) of those considered come from this sector whereas previously it was nearer 6.5%.

The overall numbers have contracted from we reckon 712 last year to 610 currently.

Of the dozen or so new Tech entrants this year the ones which caught our eye (with CoolBrands categories) included:

The last two we are pleased to report are home grown, so as to speak.

We’ll leave you with (a) peak behind the scenes at Rockett St George’s …… and (b) an explanation from Mr & Mrs Smith!

Internet Sales down for third consecutive month

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) l published  at the end of last week the monthly retail sales figures for August (pdf) Full details  are available on the ONS site.

Overall figures showed an increase in sales volumes of  0.4% (including fuel) on last month which according to Bloomberg was in line with estimates. Rather than the weather the EU got some credit for an increase in high powered vacuum sales ahead of new restrictions coming into effect in the near future.

The ONS on their preferred quarterly view noted continuing significant growth ” This year-on-year increase is now the 17th month of consecutive year-on-year growth and when this is coupled with the 18 months of consecutive rolling 3-months on 3-months growth it would be true to say that the underlying picture is one of growth.”

All the internet figures we quote are now the new seasonally adjusted statistics issued by the ONS. January 2014 was the one year in six when an extra week occurs statistically and we have annotated our headline graph to show an approximately comparable level of sales.

Our Internet sales headlines:

  • Internet sales fall again at only 11% of all retail sales down from their all time high of 11.4% back in May.
  • Internet sales down for third month in a row and are now 2.6% below the May level (July & August both down by 1.3%)
  • Reduction is entirely in Non Store Retailing sector which includes the likes of Amazon and other wholly online retailers. The reduction from May is 8.2%. The rate of decrease seems to be accelerating and this month showed a reduction month on month of 12.8%.
  • Internet food sales continue at  their all time high levels and reached  £109.3 million and are over £100 million a week for the eleventh  consecutive month
  • For every £1 spent in the online retail sector 48 pence was spent on non-store retailing 37 pence in non food stores and 15 pence in food stores!
  • We do think the ONS needs to do more analysis of internet sales as already half are effectively categorised as sales by online retailers virtually irrespective of the underlying goods or services! These average YoY growth figures of over 20% but now show signs of  the beginning of negative growth

August and year to date stats for internet sales:

  • Months sales 11.0% (11.2% last month 10.6 % a year ago) of all retail sales
  • Monthly year on year increase of 8.3% (12.9% last month 21.9 % a year ago)
  • Year to date increase on 2013 is 12.1%
  • Moving Annual total increases (1) on July 2014 annualised +6.2% (2) on July 2013 +15.5%
  • The UK’s *largest online retailer is included in the group Non-store retailing and this sector shows growth of only 4.3% on 2013 this month and accounts for nearly 50% of all online retail sales. This is an area which SHOULD just grow & grow unless further analysis is undertaken of this channel!

The ONS words this month are:

Key points

The proportion of sales made online fell by 0.2% to account for 11.0% of all sales in August 2014. Despite this fall in the proportion of sales, the amount spent online increased by 8.3% in August 2014 compared with August 2013.  

Internet Sales

Seasonally adjusted Internet sales data are provided within this release. These seasonally adjusted estimates are published in the RSI internet tables and include:

  • A seasonally adjusted value index; and
  • Year-on-year and month-on-month growth rates.

Internet sales are estimates of how much was spent online through retailers across all store types in Great Britain. The reference year is 2010=100.

Key Points

  • Average weekly spending online in August 2014 was £707.7 million. This was an increase of 8.3% compared with August 2013.
  • The amount spent online accounted for 11.0% of all retail spending excluding automotive fuel, compared with 10.6% in August 2013.
  • The online spend in textile, clothing and footwear stores increased by 27.3% year-on-year, feedback from retailers suggested that this was due to orders for children’s fancy dress costumes.

Table 4 shows the year-on-year growth rates for total Internet sales by sector and the proportion of sales made online in each retail sector.

Table 4: Summary of Internet Statistics for August 2014 (seasonally adjusted)

We have added our annotations to the ONS table – The bold categories/ figures in the table are the primary constituents of the total (ie (a) + (b) + (c) = All retailing). Dept. stores, Textile etc, Household etc and Other stores are simply an analysis of (b) All non-food.

We have also added the weekly Internet sales figures by sector and the proportion they represent of all online sales.

Sector summary

The non-store retailing sector comprises of stalls and markets, mail order and those retailers that sell mainly online.

+ Whilst the ONS will not confirm the names of specific retailers within categories they did say that retailers selling wholly online with no physical outlets would be included in the Non store retailing category along with eg online  mail order retailers.

Click to enlarge

The moving annual total, which we report, moved up again (it has increased EVERY MONTH since January 2009  to an all time high of £36.7.billion an increase in the month  of  0.6% annualised 6.2%. The average this year is 13.1%. The long term compound average growth rate is around 23%.

The published weekly figure was £708 million which was well below our estimate but due to historic revisions the moving annual total came out just £0.1 billion below our estimate.

The average monthly increase this year is  now down to 0.5% and we are uncertain as to whether this is a continuing trend we’re looking for some recovery next month so we’re  going for £730 million in September and a moving annual total of close to £37 billion.

Click to enlarge

We have again included our experimental graph (e & o e!) showing the relative internet and non-internet, moving annual total, sales from late 2007 by month. As before it highlights that high street sales have been and continue to go nowhere! As, we have mentioned before, the Boston Consulting Group forecast  in their report (The $4.2 Trillion opportunity)  that this trend is likely to continue with the high streets market share contracting at around 2.75% a year from 2010 through 2016. Due to the exceptional 5 week month in Jan 2014 there is a 6 yearly jump to allow for the 53rd week!

Further details and explanations are either in the ONS release on the statistics or on their website. As previously mentioned a retail convention of a 4, 4, 5 week quarter is used by the ONS (March June September and December are 5 week months). To cater for the inconvenience of years not having 364 days every 6 years or so an extra week is included in the statistics. The ONS adds this in January which happened this year the previous one being in 2008.