Watch out for Apple’s 50/50

October 27, 2015 By Leave a Comment

UPDATE 9.30pm GMT 27th October

Quarter 4 Actuals:

  • Revenues $51.5 billion
  • iPhone unit sales 48 million
  • EPS (fully diluted) $1.96

Quarter 1 guidance

  • Revenues $75.5  to $77.5 billion

Info

Instant comment

Good EPS OK revenues unit sales & guidance uninspiring in “street” terms

Our updated revenue chart shows slower growth following the bumper Christmas quarter in 2014.

ORIGINAL post:

That’s 50 million iPhones in their Q4 2015 and $50 billion turnover which is the mid point of their guidance.

As far as Apple Watches are concerned no figures are likly to be given but estimates are around the 4 million level.

Phillip Elmer-DeWitt over at Fortune has all the details including his (yesterdays) Estimize chart.

Todays Estimize average for Revenues comes in at $51,361.

We shall see and report back a little later.

We will not be surprised if Revenues are at the lower end of expectations but EPS at the opposite end and possibly over $1.90

Apple’s share price dropped around 3% yesterday partially due to nervousness following Dialog Semiconductors revenue miss as Apple is by far their most major customer. Seeking Alpha explains.

Filed Under: Apple

Apple revenues falter

July 22, 2015 By Leave a Comment

With their revenue guidance of $49 – $51 billion for the three months to September 2015 it looks as if revenues on a moving annual total basis will continue their growth decline of the previous 2 quarters.

This might explain the 6% ish share price reduction in after hours trading last night (and pre market move today). http://quotes.wsj.com/AAPL  Incidentally for every 1% fall in their price knocks about 7.5 points on the Dow index!

Some initial analysts reactions  are given by Philip Elmer-DeWitt of Fortune which seem to be, so far, still predicting a stock price target in excess of $150 some 20% above the current price of circa $125!

Filed Under: Apple

Keep an I on Apple Watch

March 9, 2015 By Leave a Comment

Watch the whole media event – the Apple Watch section starts about 52.30 minutes in

One other significant announcement, we think, is the lower Apple TV nprice now $69 over there and £59 here in the UK

 

March 9 2015 was  the day.

See all the Apple Watches starting at $349 through $549 to > $10k (Watch Sport, Watch and Watch Edition)

Having sprung forward Apple, at 10am PST (5pm GMT), will feature and launch their Apple Watch from the Yerba Beuna Center for the Arts in San Francisco. They have also again built an extra temporary demo area.

Apple Watch Press Release

Their online Apple store is already ofline but will fall be back once the presntation takes place

Tim Cook & Team will be in attendance and performing.

With the appropriate Apple equipment you can watch it live here Apple.com/live or on Apple TV.

Numerous live blogs will be taking place and the likes of Apple Insider, MacRumors and  & 9to5Mac will keep many informed.

We will return with our and some  of the other immediate reactions.

We’ll leave you with:

The Watch is coming

Filed Under: Apple, Wearables

Apple returns to growth

January 27, 2015 By Leave a Comment

Update am Jan 28:

From Apple:

Share price (WSJ) Close Jan 27 was $109.14

From elsewhere:

Instant analyst opinions/headlines:

Our view – Truly incredible set of results but the next quarters guidance does not seem to envisage this continuing April introduction of the Apple Watch is slightly disappointing. If the Watch is to be an “Other” product castegory rather than an addition to the current threesome then a new product group (based on historical timescales) is becoming overdue!

Update 10.45 pm GMT Jan 27:

Revenues and  EPS way above analysts estimates & Apple guidance – share price up (after hours) by about $5 so far!

Q1 Revenues/EPS: $74.6bn/$3.06

Q1 Unit sales (millions) iPhones –74.5, iPads – 21.4,  Macs – 5.5.

Q2 – 2015 Guidance Revenues/Gross margin $52-$55 bn / 38.5% – 39.5%

Original post with Schedule updated – it was the iPhones what done it!

Apple results, for their Q1 2015 (13 weeks ending December 27) should be released around 9.30 pm GMT followed fairly rapidly by their Conference Call at 10pm GMT (2pm PDT) which you can listen to live.

Click to ...

The, sort of, headline figures to look out for we think are  Revenues well ahead of their guidance mid point of $65 billion with “The Street” expecting over $68 billion.

No Apple Watch revenues until likely later in 2015 and iPods disappear into Other!

The source of much of our information is Philip Elmer-Dewitt over at Fortune to whom we, and likely many others are indebted.

Our normal graphic uses his info for the Professionals and Amateurs figures and the mid guidance information from Apple. We also add our guesses.

We will report back later after the results are released and the Conference call has taken place. Usually the Q & A session are worthwhile.

Filed Under: Apple

Apple TV or not TV

December 22, 2014 By Leave a Comment

A while back we started a post on the long anticipated iTV (or iScreen or iName of your choice) by saying:

“Their timeline for disruptive new product sales has been Q4 2001 the iPod, Q2 2007 the iPhone and then finally the iPad in Q2 of 2010.”

The average new product group introduction timeline, we reckon, has therefore involved a gap of around 17 quarters or a little over 4 years.  Some might therefore say that the Apple Watch fits neatly into this scenario with likely availability from early next year just under 5 years after the iPad introduction.

We beg to differ as the Apple Watch (note NOT the iWatch) is being categorised by Apple as part of their new Other products group). Per their conference call on their Q4 results back in October “We’ll be creating a new reporting category called other products. This will encompass everything we report in the accessories category today including Beats headphones and speakers, Apple TV and peripherals and accessories for iPhone, iPad, Mac and iPod.

In addition, we will begin to include iPod sales in the other products category and we will also reflect sales of Apple Watch in this line item once it begins shipping in early calendar 2015.”

So possibly we can look forward to the iTV either early in 2015 or not until 2018!

Elsewhere Seeking Alpha in the form of Alex Cho thinks it could well be in the 2016-2018 timeframe. His analysis is somewhat influenced by the excellent analyst, from Piper Jaffray, Gene Munster whose one weakness as even he highlighted in a 2013 presentation slide seems to be forecasting the arrival of the iTV. It ran as follows:

  • 2009 – “Apple will launch a television by 2011″ – Gene Munster
  • 2011 – “Apple will launch a television by 2012″ – Gene Munster
  • 2012 – “Don’t buy a TV today because Apple will launch one in 2013″ – Gene Munster
  • 2013 – “……” Gene Munster

His latest statement is:

“Apple takes a long time in-between products. If we look back over the last decade, it’s 3-6 years between major products. And so, ultimately the Watch is what hit this year, they’re going to refine that next year along with payments. And then that probably gets us into 2016 as more of a time frame for the actual television.”

We hope our 2015 possibility comes to fruition and in the meantime will leave you with the impressive Martin Hajek’s  video of what it might just look like!

Filed Under: Apple, TV

Keep an i on our week, fall beck edition

October 25, 2014 By Leave a Comment

It was definetly Apple‘s week & this included:

In addition to putting back our clocks, here in the UK tonight, the annual poppy appeal has got under way and we have already put on our poppy (Picture courtesy of the Royal British Legion)..

The Royal British Legion site is where you can find out about many of the activities which will be taking place and how you can support this years appeal which is aiming to raise £40 million.

An excellent start we, thought, with Joss Stone‘s recording of No Man’s Land (Green Fields of France) which is available we believe to download from 2 November but can already be pre-ordered NOW from all the usual suspects as well as the Poppy Shop:

We’ll leave you with the video

Filed Under: Apple, I week

Keeping an I off Apple Watch

October 22, 2014 By Leave a Comment

We think apart from the sort of spotting of some grey shoots of recovery in Apple revenue figures that possibly the most noteworthy disclosure in the results concerned a, arguably forward looking statement as follows in the *conference call.

Nancy Paxton -  Senior Director of Investor Relations

“We’ll be creating a new reporting category called other products. This will encompass everything we report in the accessories category today including Beats headphones and speakers, Apple TV and peripherals and accessories for iPhone, iPad, Mac and iPod.

In addition, we will begin to include iPod sales in the other products category and we will also reflect sales of Apple Watch in this line item once it begins shipping in early calendar 2015.”

So is Apple Watch a product group as, possibly, indicated in their Store header or like Apple TV is it a sort of hobby?

We’ve had a feeble attempt at restating the latest quarters figures to see what it might look like. In practice we expect iTunes etc to be promoted. Going way back in time iPod was of course the first new product group after Mac starting in 2004 and likely being the largest revenue generator from 2005 through 2007 or 2008 when it was overtaken by the iPhone.

We guess that as with recent restatements only the last couple of years will be included in fiscal 2015 results.

The categorisation of the Watch as an Other product we regard as being defensive and to an extent Tim Cook’s reaction in the *conference call when directly questioned by Ben Reitzes on the topic really confirmed this.

Ben Reitzes – Barclays

“… Tim, I was wondering what we were to make out of your new segments with the Apple Watch being in the other category. We were just a little surprised to hear that because it seems like such a substantial new category and you could sell may be even tens of millions of unit.

So by putting it lumped in the other with iPods and a lot of other things, does that say something about your expectations for that product or do you think that you’ll just break it out after a little while?”

Tim Cook – CEO

“Probably it says nothing about our expectation for the product. We didn’t form those categories based on expectations. We looked at current revenue, today revenue, and decided that we would leave everything that wasn’t a Mac, an iPad, or an iPhone or a service in one kind of category.

In the future, we might decide something different, but for now, in Q1 we’re not shipping any iPhone or excuse me, Apple Watches and so it seems appropriate to start it that way.

And also to be also straight is I am not very anxious in reporting a lot of numbers on Apple Watch because of the — and giving a lot of detail on it because our competitors are looking for it and so aggregating it is helpful from that point of view as well.”

At the minute if it looks like, smells like, and is categorised as an accessory, (within Other products) then that’s what it is likely to be and remain, we think, and we are disappointed. But then you would expect us to be lobbying  for an iWatch product group wouldn’t you!

 

* Extracts from Seeking Alpha’s transcript

Filed Under: Apple, I-theme, Wearables

Thinnest increase in Apple revenues

October 20, 2014 By Leave a Comment

Apple results, for their Q4 2014 (13 weeks ending September 27) were released around 9.30 pm BST on October 20  followed fairly rapidly by their Conference Call at 10pm BST (2pm PDT) See Update 2 below for replay

Update (2) am BST October 21:

From Apple:

From elsewhere:

Instant analyst opinions/headlines:

Our view – Separate post to follow

Update (1) 9.45 pm BST October 20:

Revenues and  EPS way above analysts estimates & Apple guidance – share price up marginally by about $1 so far!

  • Q4 Revenues/EPS: $42.1bn/$1.42
  • Q4 Unit sales (millions) iPhones –39.3, iPads – 12.3,  Macs – 5.5,  iPods 2.6

Q1 – 2015 Guidance Revenues/Gross margin $63.5-$66.5 bn / 37.5% – 38.5%

Original post am October 20 WITH SCHEDULE UPDATED WITH ACTUAL FINANCIALS

The, sort of, headline figures to look out for we think are:

  • Annual revenue increase is likely to be around 5% (if their guidance mid point of $38.5bn is met) which we think is the lowest since 2001 when there was a decrease!
  • If their revenues are less than $39.3bn this quarter the growth rate will show less than 1% of an increase in the moving annual total in the quarter.
  • Quarter 4 results consensus (Professionals/The Street) Revenues / Earnings per share – $40bn / $1.30
  • Quarter 1 2015 mid guidance consensus Revenues / Earnings per share – $65bn / $2.40
  • The Apple Watch won’t impact revenues until likely later in 2015.

Click to enlarge

The source of much of our information is Philip Elmer-Dewitt  of Fortune to whom we, and likely many others are indebted.

Our normal graphic uses his info for the Professionals and Amateurs figures and the mid guidance information from Apple. We also add our guesses. We’re going for a rounded and, sort of, low key set of results this time!

We will report back later after the results are released and the Conference call has taken place. Usually the Q & A session are worthwhile.

Filed Under: Apple

The Skinniest Thinnest Apples

October 17, 2014 By Leave a Comment

The media event yesterday as anticipated produced updates for iPads (iPad air 2 & iPad mini 3) the iMac with a new 27” 5k retina display together with a quicker and cheaper Mac mini. There were also quite a few words about the iPhone 6 an d Apple Pay (commencing Monday 20th October).

Mr Cook was, to us, a little more humorous than usual and this was also attempted by some of his colleagues. You can review his and the product intros with their video of the event. Its about 80 minutes in total, but if after Mr Cook’s intro if you fast forward to about 35 minutes that’s when the new iPads start appearing (all with touch id incidentally).

Having mentioned the rather larger September event apparently it cost around $1 million which to us is not a huge amount in the context of their sales and marketing activities.

Continuing on the humorous note when Craig Federighi was talking about the programming language Swift he said that it’s new enterprise partner was both impressed by & also using it widely. We were very amused by appleinsider’s live commentator when he blogged “iBM excited about Swift”. Nice touch we thought!

Next week on Monday October 20 you can tune in at 2pm PT to catch the audio of the live conference call to discuss their FY 2014 Q4 results which will have been released about 30 minutes earlier.

We do like Apple‘s skinny product line picture & hope they don’t mind us using it. 10/10 for whoever or the agency which came up with the idea!

Filed Under: Apple, I-theme

Tablets phablets everywhere

October 16, 2014 By Leave a Comment

As Apple inadvertently leaked its new iPad family members  (we will report back after the official launch later today) Google announced its new (mainly Nexus) range yesterday with a sort of  9, 6, player headline with an associated lollipop!

We’re surprised / disappointed that there’s not a smaller tablet even an 8 would have been our preference.

The 9 & 6 tablet/phablet will be available for pre order  in the UK likely next month but the player (their new set top streaming box) has no UK release indications yet. No formal prices for the UK yet but early indications are  Nexus 9 (from) – £250 ish / $349 and Nexus 6 (no contract) – £420 ish / $649.

The phone is from Motorola and the tablet from HTC.

Google had their traditional blog post on the new products and were unsurprisingly concentrating on the android brand. Especially the “and” bit andyou!

We’ll leave you with their video.

Filed Under: Apple, Google, Mobile, Tablets
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