Apple revenues falter

With their revenue guidance of $49 – $51 billion for the three months to September 2015 it looks as if revenues on a moving annual total basis will continue their growth decline of the previous 2 quarters.

This might explain the 6% ish share price reduction in after hours trading last night (and pre market move today). http://quotes.wsj.com/AAPL  Incidentally for every 1% fall in their price knocks about 7.5 points on the Dow index!

Some initial analysts reactions  are given by Philip Elmer-DeWitt of Fortune which seem to be, so far, still predicting a stock price target in excess of $150 some 20% above the current price of circa $125!

.uk Registrations Disappoint

Nominet publish their new registration statistics monthly which is good news.

Not such good news is the level of .uk registrations which, after a promising start on their first release back in mid-June last year, now seem to be running at around the 20,000 a month level, constituting about 12.5% of all the .UK family (ie .co.uk, .org.uk, .me.uk etc).

As far as the overall .uk family domains managed by Nominet are concerned these seem to be flat-lining at about 10.5 million.

Keep an I on Apple Watch

Watch the whole media event – the Apple Watch section starts about 52.30 minutes in

One other significant announcement, we think, is the lower Apple TV nprice now $69 over there and £59 here in the UK

 

March 9 2015 was  the day.

See all the Apple Watches starting at $349 through $549 to > $10k (Watch Sport, Watch and Watch Edition)

Having sprung forward Apple, at 10am PST (5pm GMT), will feature and launch their Apple Watch from the Yerba Beuna Center for the Arts in San Francisco. They have also again built an extra temporary demo area.

Apple Watch Press Release

Their online Apple store is already ofline but will fall be back once the presntation takes place

Tim Cook & Team will be in attendance and performing.

With the appropriate Apple equipment you can watch it live here Apple.com/live or on Apple TV.

Numerous live blogs will be taking place and the likes of Apple Insider, MacRumors and  & 9to5Mac will keep many informed.

We will return with our and some  of the other immediate reactions.

We’ll leave you with:

The Watch is coming

Live Digital #LFW AW15

Livestream – Digital Schedule below

Monday 23 February 2015

9:00 Antonio Berardi
10:00 Roksanda
11:00 Erdem
12:00 Barbara Casasola
12.30pm – 1.30pm O Thongthai Screening BFC Courtyard Showspace
13:00 Burberry Prorsum
1.30pm – 2.30pm Designer Showrooms Screenings BFC Courtyard Showspace
14:00 Osman
17:00 Peter Pilotto
18:00 Hunter Original
19:00 GILES

.

Sunday 22 February 2015

10:00 Margaret Howell
11:00 David Koma
12:00 Issa
14:00 Temperley London
15:00 Topshop Unique
17:00 Vivienne Westwood Red Label
18:00 Mary Katrantzou
19:00 Pringle of Scotland
20:15 Jonathan Saunders

.

Saturday 21 February 2015

09:00 Mother of Pearl
9.30am – 11.30am Hemyca Digital Presentation WC1: The ME Hotel
10:00 Jasper Conran
11:00 Emilia Wickstead
12:00 Sibling
13:00 Julien Macdonald
14:00 Holly Fulton
15:00 Lucas Nascimento
3.30pm – 5.30pm Rejina Pyo Digital Presentation WC1: Mary Ward House
16:00 J.W.Anderson Women’s
17:00 1205
18:00 Simone Rocha
19:00 House of Holland
20:00 Gareth Pugh

.

Friday 20 February 2015

09:30 J. JS Lee
12:30 Eudon Choi
13:30 Bora Aksu
14:30 Felder Felder
15:15 Daks
16:30 Jean-Pierre Braganza
17:30 FYODOR GOLAN
18:30 sass & bide
20:00 Central Saint Martins MA

Apple returns to growth

Update am Jan 28:

From Apple:

Share price (WSJ) Close Jan 27 was $109.14

From elsewhere:

Instant analyst opinions/headlines:

Our view – Truly incredible set of results but the next quarters guidance does not seem to envisage this continuing April introduction of the Apple Watch is slightly disappointing. If the Watch is to be an “Other” product castegory rather than an addition to the current threesome then a new product group (based on historical timescales) is becoming overdue!

Update 10.45 pm GMT Jan 27:

Revenues and  EPS way above analysts estimates & Apple guidance – share price up (after hours) by about $5 so far!

Q1 Revenues/EPS: $74.6bn/$3.06

Q1 Unit sales (millions) iPhones –74.5, iPads – 21.4,  Macs – 5.5.

Q2 – 2015 Guidance Revenues/Gross margin $52-$55 bn / 38.5% – 39.5%

Original post with Schedule updated – it was the iPhones what done it!

Apple results, for their Q1 2015 (13 weeks ending December 27) should be released around 9.30 pm GMT followed fairly rapidly by their Conference Call at 10pm GMT (2pm PDT) which you can listen to live.

Click to ...

The, sort of, headline figures to look out for we think are  Revenues well ahead of their guidance mid point of $65 billion with “The Street” expecting over $68 billion.

No Apple Watch revenues until likely later in 2015 and iPods disappear into Other!

The source of much of our information is Philip Elmer-Dewitt over at Fortune to whom we, and likely many others are indebted.

Our normal graphic uses his info for the Professionals and Amateurs figures and the mid guidance information from Apple. We also add our guesses.

We will report back later after the results are released and the Conference call has taken place. Usually the Q & A session are worthwhile.

New gTLD registrations were 3.7 million in 2014

This is according to ntldstats.com  and looking at the monthly rates these have been over half a million in June & October. The current run rate seems to be around 400k a month. There are 453 of the new gTLD’s listed as at today’s date.

Overall the volumes must be disappointing as far as ICANN are concerned who were hoping for something like 15 million in the year to June 2015 which looks most unlikely.

We’ve had a look at the top 10 and others of interest in the UK in our table. The Chinese .网址 (XN-SES554G) apparently translates as “website” and virtually all of the registrations are parked or have no content (98.9%).

On the UK front .london is doing well but lags .nyc and .berlin.  .wales & .cymru are still in the release phase and are not yet generally available but the numbers look very low to us. Whilst it is somewhat dated Nominet Board reports indicate total new .uk registrations in August & September of last year of around the 140k a month level.

.scot is making some progress and it will be interesting to see how this develops – we did notice that the Scottish Government now have their very own HMRC competitor Revenue Scotland at revenue.scot.

Christmastide

Click to visit on your mobile http://snow.akqa.com/

We strongly reccomend a visit (from your mobile or tablet) to akqa.com’s Winterlands site – most impressive.

As an alterrnative you can always check out the actual snow situation at one of Scotland’s leading ski areas at the  Glencoe Mountain resort.

It’s touch and go currently as to whether or not the facilities will be operational over the holiday period.

STATUS (Daily - check for updates)

31/12/14 (am) - “TOO WINDY AT PRESENT AND FORECAST TO GET WORSE – SNOWSPORTS SUSPENDED FOR TODAY
We have lost the lower slopes but the poma uptrack is complete for access only. Middle and upper slopes still have good cover of soft snow.”

29/12/14 (am) – “Most runs on the mountain have a good cover of snow some a little thin and narrow in places. Upper mountain snow is firm but grippy with some scraped patches in high traffic areas.”

27/12/14 (pm) – “Poma, cliffy and Wall T-bar all expected to run tomorrow morning. The Groomers have been working hard and we hope to have the Main Basin T-Bar running by lunchtime.”

26/12/14 (am) - “We are going for a 10am start .. Plateau Poma piste involves a bit of combat skiing. Now the daylight has come in we have assessed the runs and unfortunately the wind has scoured huge areas, so Mugs Alley a no go. Tickets £20 adults and £15 kids.”

24/12/14 (pm) – “Heavy snow today has improved conditions on the hill. We expect to be able to offer some skiing on Boxing day. We won`t know how much until we get up the hill on the 26th.”

 Merry Christmas from I.uk and I.co.uk

 

UK leads world Ecommerce Sales

Well, sort of!

  • In absolute number terms we come in at #3 after China & the USA.

  • In % of all retail sales terms we are well ahead of the pack & in 2013 are the only country with a double digit number.

  • As per our graphic looking at the 10 top countries in total value terms and expressing this in per capita terms (population figures courtesy of  Worldometers) we again lead the world by quite a margin. Looking out in time based on these forecasts we are also likely to stay well ahead.

The Ecommerce figures come from eMarketer  who have also, for the first time produced all retail sales figures for the world and project these to grow from $21.2 trillion in 2013 to over $28 trillion in 2018.

On the Ecommerce figures we reckon that the top 3 countries contribute over 60% of the world figure and this is set to rise to nearly 66.6% by 2018.

With approaching 20% of the worlds population China currently contributes just under 30% of of the world Ecommerce sales and this is forecast to rise to over 40% by 2018. This is the only country in the top ten who are forecast to increase their shares. The US drops from 25% to 20% and we fall from 6.5% to 5%.

Perhaps our golden hour today will help to keep us ahead of the chasing pack.

 

Apple TV or not TV

A while back we started a post on the long anticipated iTV (or iScreen or iName of your choice) by saying:

“Their timeline for disruptive new product sales has been Q4 2001 the iPod, Q2 2007 the iPhone and then finally the iPad in Q2 of 2010.”

The average new product group introduction timeline, we reckon, has therefore involved a gap of around 17 quarters or a little over 4 years.  Some might therefore say that the Apple Watch fits neatly into this scenario with likely availability from early next year just under 5 years after the iPad introduction.

We beg to differ as the Apple Watch (note NOT the iWatch) is being categorised by Apple as part of their new Other products group). Per their conference call on their Q4 results back in October “We’ll be creating a new reporting category called other products. This will encompass everything we report in the accessories category today including Beats headphones and speakers, Apple TV and peripherals and accessories for iPhone, iPad, Mac and iPod.

In addition, we will begin to include iPod sales in the other products category and we will also reflect sales of Apple Watch in this line item once it begins shipping in early calendar 2015.”

So possibly we can look forward to the iTV either early in 2015 or not until 2018!

Elsewhere Seeking Alpha in the form of Alex Cho thinks it could well be in the 2016-2018 timeframe. His analysis is somewhat influenced by the excellent analyst, from Piper Jaffray, Gene Munster whose one weakness as even he highlighted in a 2013 presentation slide seems to be forecasting the arrival of the iTV. It ran as follows:

  • 2009 – “Apple will launch a television by 2011″ – Gene Munster
  • 2011 – “Apple will launch a television by 2012″ – Gene Munster
  • 2012 – “Don’t buy a TV today because Apple will launch one in 2013″ – Gene Munster
  • 2013 – “……” Gene Munster

His latest statement is:

“Apple takes a long time in-between products. If we look back over the last decade, it’s 3-6 years between major products. And so, ultimately the Watch is what hit this year, they’re going to refine that next year along with payments. And then that probably gets us into 2016 as more of a time frame for the actual television.”

We hope our 2015 possibility comes to fruition and in the meantime will leave you with the impressive Martin Hajek’s  video of what it might just look like!

Black Friday boosts November Internet Sales to all Time Records

The Office for National Statistics (ONS)  yesterday published the the monthly retail sales figures for November (pdf) Full details  are available on the ONS site.

Overall figures showed an increase in sales volumes of  1.6% (including fuel) on last month which according to Bloomberg was greater than its estimate of 0.4% obtained in their news survey of  economists. We think there are comparative distortions this month compared to November 2013 as “Black Friday” is included in November this year but in December last year. We shall see! “The ONS data also showed the continuing impact of the supermarket price war. Food prices measured by the deflator dropped an annual 1 percent, and overall prices fell 2 percent, the most in 12 years.”

The ONS on their preferred quarterly view noted continuing growth.” The underlying pattern in the three-month on three-month movement in the quantity bought continued to show growth for the 21st consecutive month increasing by 1.1%. This was the longest period of sustained growth since November 2007 when there were 25 periods of consecutive growth.”

All the internet figures we quote are now the new seasonally adjusted statistics issued by the ONS. January 2014 was the one year in six when an extra week occurs statistically and we have annotated our headline graph to show an approximately comparable level of sales.

Our Internet sales headlines:

  • Strong Internet sales (helped by Black Friday) achieve highest monthly growth rate (3.0%) this year.
  • Total Internet sales as proportion of all sales at new all time high of 11.5% & this is the eighth consecutive month when internet sales have been above 11%
  • Internet food sales as a proportion all food sales at new all time high of 3.9% and only just short of £115 million a week.
  • For every £1 spent in the online retail sector 47 pence was spent on non-store retailing 38 pence in non food stores and 15 pence in food stores!
  • The Non Store Retailing sector which includes the likes of Amazon and other wholly online retailers seems to be levelling out rather than showing an increase and since its peak in May at over £360 million per week seems to be stuck in a range of between £350 – £356 million.
  • We do think the ONS needs to do more analysis of internet sales as already nearly half are effectively categorised as sales by online retailers virtually irrespective of the underlying goods or services! These average YoY growth figures of over 20% but now show signs of slowing to nearer 15%!

November and year to date stats for internet sales:

  • Months sales 11.5% (11.3% last month 10.7 % a year ago) of all retail sales
  • Monthly year on year increase of 12.9% (9.2% last month 17.5% a year ago)
  • Year to date increase on 2013 is 12.4% (12.3% last month)
  • Moving Annual total increases (1) on October 2014 annualised +11.9% (2) on November 2013 +14.3%
  • The UK’s *largest online retailer is included in the group Non-store retailing and this sector shows growth of 10.7% on 2013 this month and accounts for nearly 50% of all online retail sales. This is an area which SHOULD just grow & grow unless further analysis is undertaken of this channel!

The ONS words this month are:

Key points

The value of sales made online increased by 2.9% compared with October 2014 and accounted for 11.5% of all retail sales in November 2014. Online sales increased by 12.9% compared with November 2013.

Internet Sales in Detail

Seasonally adjusted Internet sales data are provided within this release. These seasonally adjusted estimates are published in the RSI internet tables and include:

  • a seasonally adjusted value index, and
  • year-on-year and month-on-month growth rates.

Internet sales are estimates of how much was spent online through retailers across all store types in Great Britain. The reference year is 2011=100.

Key Points

  • Average weekly spending online in November 2014 was £753.4 million. This was an increase of 12.9% compared with November 2013. This increase is in part due to ‘Black Friday’ which was not included in the November 2013 data.
  • The online spend in household goods stores increased by 38.4% compared with October 2013. This was the highest year-on-year spend in this store type since November 2009 when it increased by 43.2%. The largest contribution to this growth came from electrical appliance stores.
  • The amount spent online accounted for 11.5% of all retail spending excluding automotive fuel, compared with 10.7% in November 2013.

Table 3 shows the year-on-year growth rates for total Internet sales by sector and the proportion of sales made online in each retail sector.”

Table 3: Summary of Internet Statistics for November 2014 (seasonally adjusted)

We have added our annotations to the ONS table – The bold categories/ figures in the table are the primary constituents of the total (ie (a) + (b) + (c) = All retailing). Dept. stores, Textile etc, Household etc and Other stores are simply an analysis of (b) All non-food.

We have also added the weekly Internet sales figures by sector and the proportion they represent of all online sales.

Sector summary

The non-store retailing sector comprises of stalls and markets, mail order and those retailers that sell mainly online.

+ Whilst the ONS will not confirm the names of specific retailers within categories they did say that retailers selling wholly online with no

Click to ...

The moving annual total, which we report, moved up again (it has increased EVERY MONTH since January 2009  to an all time high of £37.8 billion an increase in the month  of  0.9% annualised 12.6%. The average this year is 14%. The long term compound average growth rate is around 15%.

Click to ...

The published total internet sales weekly figure was £753.6 million which was ahead of our expectations anjd we even beat our moving annual estimate with the actual reaching £37.8 billion.

The average monthly increase this year has now risen to 0.9% . With a strong Cyber Monday followed by it’s manic brother we are optimistically looking for another record breaker at  seasonal recovery above average an increase of around 0.75%  next month so we’re  going for £775 million in December and a moving annual total of about £38.25 billion.

We have again included our experimental graph (e & o e!) showing the relative internet and non-internet, moving annual total, sales from late 2009 by month. As before it highlights that high street sales have been and continue to go nowhere! As, we have mentioned before, the Boston Consulting Group forecast  in their report (The $4.2 Trillion opportunity) that this trend is likely to continue with the high streets market share contracting at around 2.75% a year from 2010 through 2016. Due to the exceptional 5 week month in Jan 2014 there is a 6 yearly jump to allow for the 53rd week!

Further details and explanations are either in the ONS release on the statistics or on their website. As previously mentioned a retail convention of a 4, 4, 5 week quarter is used by the ONS (March June September and December are 5 week months). To cater for the inconvenience of years not having 364 days every 6 years or so an extra week is included in the statistics. The ONS adds this in January which happened this year the previous one being in 2008.