“Their timeline for disruptive new product sales has been Q4 2001 the iPod, Q2 2007 the iPhone and then finally the iPad in Q2 of 2010.”
The average new product group introduction timeline, we reckon, has therefore involved a gap of around 17 quarters or a little over 4 years. Some might therefore say that the Apple Watch fits neatly into this scenario with likely availability from early next year just under 5 years after the iPad introduction.
We beg to differ as the Apple Watch (note NOT the iWatch) is being categorised by Apple as part of their new Other products group). Per their conference call on their Q4 results back in October “We’ll be creating a new reporting category called other products. This will encompass everything we report in the accessories category today including Beats headphones and speakers, Apple TV and peripherals and accessories for iPhone, iPad, Mac and iPod.
In addition, we will begin to include iPod sales in the other products category and we will also reflect sales of Apple Watch in this line item once it begins shipping in early calendar 2015.”
So possibly we can look forward to the iTV either early in 2015 or not until 2018!
Elsewhere Seeking Alpha in the form of Alex Cho thinks it could well be in the 2016-2018 timeframe. His analysis is somewhat influenced by the excellent analyst, from Piper Jaffray, Gene Munster whose one weakness as even he highlighted in a 2013 presentation slide seems to be forecasting the arrival of the iTV. It ran as follows:
- 2009 – “Apple will launch a television by 2011″ – Gene Munster
- 2011 – “Apple will launch a television by 2012″ – Gene Munster
- 2012 – “Don’t buy a TV today because Apple will launch one in 2013″ – Gene Munster
- 2013 – “……” Gene Munster
His latest statement is:
“Apple takes a long time in-between products. If we look back over the last decade, it’s 3-6 years between major products. And so, ultimately the Watch is what hit this year, they’re going to refine that next year along with payments. And then that probably gets us into 2016 as more of a time frame for the actual television.”
We hope our 2015 possibility comes to fruition and in the meantime will leave you with the impressive Martin Hajek’s video of what it might just look like!