UK Online Grocery Sales to Grow at 17% pa through 2018

Ocado has just announced its half yearly results and they show a profit for the first time which is encouraging.

As part of their presentation they included a summary forecast of the grocery market courtesy of IDG from 2013 through 2018.

Click to enlarge

It shows the online market growing from around £6.8 billion in 2013 to a little under £15 billion by 2018 which we reckon is a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 17%.

As far as the overall market is concerned it looks as if it is forecast to grow at something like 4% pa CAGR. This, according to our calculator means that the bricks & mortar market is growing at something like 3.25% pa.

IDG  have an excellent track record  in the retail sector but we wonder if there will, apart form population growth, (likely to be less than 1% pa) be this ongoing level of growth.

Certainly right now it looks as if Ocado’s basket size is actually falling in the currently extremely competitive market place.

We shall see!

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