Ocado has just announced its half yearly results and they show a profit for the first time which is encouraging.
As part of their presentation they included a summary forecast of the grocery market courtesy of IDG from 2013 through 2018.
Click to enlarge
It shows the online market growing from around £6.8 billion in 2013 to a little under £15 billion by 2018 which we reckon is a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 17%.
As far as the overall market is concerned it looks as if it is forecast to grow at something like 4% pa CAGR. This, according to our calculator means that the bricks & mortar market is growing at something like 3.25% pa.
IDG have an excellent track record in the retail sector but we wonder if there will, apart form population growth, (likely to be less than 1% pa) be this ongoing level of growth.
Certainly right now it looks as if Ocado’s basket size is actually falling in the currently extremely competitive market place.
We shall see!
