Apples Revenues Due to Decline this Quarter

Apple results for their Q1 2014 (13 weeks ending December 28) should be released around 9.30 pm GMT followed fairly rapidly by their Conference Call at 10pm GMT (2pm PST) which you can listen to live.

ROUNDUP am January 28

From Apple:

 Share price (WSJ) –It was down about $44 at the end of after hours trading last night

 From elsewhere:

Instant analyst opinions/headlines:

Our view

Continues to be what we’ve been banging on about for a while which is that revenues by and large are flatlineing as per our graphic which for this quarter is based on the mid point of their guidance ie $43bn. If this is met it will be the first time we think since Q4 2002 that a quarterly decline will have taken place

iPhone introduced 2007, iPad introduced 2010 whats next – hopefully another disrupter and the obvilus volume higher priced item is a very HD TV – we will have to wait & see!

RESULTS UPDATE Jan 27

  • Revenues $57.6 billion
  • EPS $14.50
  • Unit Sales (millions) Macs- 4.8  iPods-6.0 iPhones- 51.0 iPads- 26.0
  • Share Price -close $550.50 After hours WSJ Initially down $34 on Q2 guidance During first 10 minutes Conference call down $40 down $48 45 minutes into conference call
  • Guidance Q2 2014 Revenues $42bn – $44bn Margin 37% – 38% Revenues at this level will possibly show a reduction on the previous years $43.6bn
  • Press release
  • SEC Filing

Conference call underway led by CFO Peter Oppenheimer – No statement by Tim Cook – Straight to Q & A – Corporate Comptroller Luca Maestri responds to a question – Tim now speaks about China which looks like the great red white hope to us! “Objective is to sell the best not the most” re iPhone market share deterioration globally. Mix of sales last quarter was different to their expectations in particular higher demand for touch id iPhone 5s. Finishes at 2.56pm PST!

Click to enlarge

UPDATED Schedule to the left – initial media coverage & comment to follow tomorrow

The, sort of, headline figures to look out for we think are:

  •  If their revenues are less than $54.5bn this quarter it will be the first year on year quarterly decrease we think since Q4 of 2002 –      pretty unlikely!
  • Quarter 1 results consensus (Professionals/The Street) Revenues / Earnings per share – $57.4 bn / $14.07
  • Quarter 2 mid guidance consensus Revenues / Earnings per share – $46 bn / $11

Whilst no new product announcement will be made hopefully some hints will be made as even Carl Icahn (who has around $3 billion invested in Apple) is now advising them to release more new products to get back into a growth cycle.

The source of much of our information is Philip Elmer-Dewitt editor of Apple 2.0 to whom we, and likely many others are indebted.

Our normal graphic uses his info for the Professionals and Amateurs figures and the mid guidance information from Apple. We also add our guesses. We’re going for lots of 7’s in our numbers this time!

We will report back later after the results are released and the Conference call has taken place. Usually the Q & A session adds value. We shall see, or rather hear, if this continues to be the case!

Meanwhile we’ll leave you with an inspired guess on the iWatch front!

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