Keep an I on our year (2013 edition)

The top 10 articles in the year as visited by you were:

  1. The Tech Rich List 2013 (April 22) 
  2. Peeks Vision (August 16) 
  3. ITV’s Colour picking finger likin’ transformational logo  (January 15)  
  4. Two thirds of worldwide e-commerce sales generated by four countries (June 28) 
  5. Five win 4 G but Tesco doesn’t (February 20)
  6. Aereo antenna could add to zero TV homes (April 8) 
  7. Will we all spend £200 on Christmas (August 20) 
  8. Twitter and the Growth of the Active Passive user (January 30) 
  9. Iceland Delivers (May 7) 
  10. The UK Top Mobile Retailers (April 11) 

Our regular features, again in popularity terms, have been:

  1. Our weekly Best Selling Business Books which were dominated this year by Sheryl Sandberg’s Lean in  and StrengthsFinder2.0            
  2. Monthly Retail sales analysis – The Latest being Novembers impressive results.
  3. Apple‘s quarterly results for 2013. Q1Q2   Q3  & Q4
  4. Le Web in London & Paris            

We will early in the new year review our last years predictions and embarrass ourselves yet again.

The product of the year is likely the iPhone 5S  and our start up company has to be Tile  

HMV were rescued, sort of, and their now hiistoric Nipper Channel   reminds us of their lively past.

Our top pic of the year has to be of the Red Arrows opening the first day of the First Test at Trent Bridge which was the start of our Ashes win which compares well with the current debacle!

Our top video of the year was Lindsey Stirling’s Minimal Beat highlighting the huge number of countries visited during her world tour. She’s off again in 2014 but just round the USA & Canada for now!

We will finish 2013 with our traditional thanks (for visiting us during the year) and wishing you all a very Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year when we hope to greet you again!

Keep an I on our Week – Too late Tuesday edition

The spendfest continues:

So we thought too late Tuesday was an appropriate name for the last shopping day (or part thereof) prior to the actual event.

Last week we had our regular analysis of our retail sales which reinforce the view that internet sales are due for a bumper December. We shall see!

On this shortest day of the year, up here, we’ll leave you with Leona Lewis’s snow filled video of One More Sleep just in case we don’t get any of the white stuff in the near future!

All Time Records for November Internet Retail Sales

Today  The Office for National Statistics (ONS)  published the monthly retail sales figures for November (pdf) Full details  are available on the ONS site.

Overall figures showed an increase of 0.3% in the month (from October) which by & large was in line with expectations confirming some small growth.   the ONS continue with their preferred three monthly which again was flat. The weather got an honourable mention with the cold boosting clothes sales. So far no one seems to have picked up on the all time highs for internet sales and the ONS didn’t even include it in their headlines!

Our Internet sales headlines:

  • Internet sales up at 11.9% of all retailsales was their HIGHEST EVER level (previous all time high was 10.9% in December 2012).
  • Year to date they are at 10.2% of all retail sales..
  • Online food sales at 3.6% of all food sales were at their highest (equal) EVER level.
  • For every £1 spent in the online retail sector 49 pence was spent on non-store retailing 38 pence in non food stores and 13 pence in food stores! This compares with ALL Retail excluding online of  7p for non-store 46p in non food stores and 47p on food!
  • All internet sales excluding food were 18.4% (16.5% revised) and have now broken out above their previous range of 15%-17% by some margin.
  • The decline in the rates of growth of the major online only retailers noted in previous months starting with the Olympics last year have now virtually normalised to the average of over 20% as recorded since the statistics were first compiled. These figures include the online sales of all the majors ie  Apple, Google, eBay, Amazon (including LoveFilm), Asos, Netflix and Shop Direct (Isme Very, Littlewoods etc)
  • We do think the ONS needs to do more analysis of internet sales as already nearly half 49% this month are effectively categorised as sales by online retailers virtually irrespective of the underlying goods or services!  

November and year to date stats for internet sales:

  • Months sales 11.9% (10.5% revised) of all retail sales
  • Year to date sales 10.2 % (10.0% revised1) of all retail sales
  • Monthly year on year increase of +15.1%.(+16.2% revised1)
  • Moving Annual total increases (1) on October 2013 annualised +15.7% (2) on November 2012 +15.6%
  • The UK’s *largest online retailer is included in the group Non-store retailing and this sector shows growth of 15.4% on 2012 and accounts for nearly 50% of all online retail sales. This is an area which SHOULD just grow & grow unless further analysis is undertaken of this channel!

As always the “history” has been revised1 by the ONS which this month went back as far as November 2012  with overall small increases in and all Retail Sales.

The ONS words this month are:

Internet Sales in Detail

Internet sales are estimates of how much was spent online through retailers across all store types in Great Britain. Figures are non-seasonally adjusted and the reference year is 2010=100.

Key Points

• Average weekly spending online (Internet sales values non-seasonally adjusted) in November 2013 was £809.9 million. This was an increase of 15.1% compared with November 2012.

• The amount spent online accounted for a record 11.9% of all retail spending excluding  automotive fuel.

• The online spend at department stores was estimated at a record 11.4% reflecting feedback from retailers that suggested that investment in their Internet sites has boosted sales but at the same time detracted from sales in store.

Table 4 shows the year-on-year growth rates for total Internet sales by sector and the proportion of sales made on line for each sector

 Table 4: Summary of Internet Statistics for November 2013

We have added our annotations to the ONS table) – The bold categories/ figures in the table are the primary constituents of the total (ie (a) + (b) + (c) = All retailing). Dept. stores, Textile etc, Household etc and Other stores are simply an analysis of (b) All non-food.

We have also added the weekly Internet sales figures by sector and the proportion they represent of all online sales. (We have corrected a misstatement of these %’s in last months table) link

Sector summary

The non-store retailing sector comprises of stalls and markets, mail order and those retailers that sell mainly online.

* Whilst the ONS will not confirm the names of specific retailers within categories they did say that retailers selling wholly online with no physical outlets would be included in the Non store retailing category along with eg online  mail order retailers.

The moving annual total, which we report, moved up again (it has increased EVERY MONTH since October 2007 being the first full year of reporting by the ONS) to an all time high of £32.8 billion an increase in the month (adjusted re restatements and revisions) of 1.31% annualised 15.7%. The average this year is 13.5%. The long term compound average growth rate (from 2007) is 23.0%.

The published weekly figures at £809 million was a little behind our aggressive estimate (£835) and we also were £0.2bn short of our £33 billion moving annual total target. December is the biggest month of the year so we so we will again large size it and look for a jump to a £951+ million target so we can round it to a billion  alongside a moving annual total of over £33.3 billion.

We have again included our experimental graph (e & o e!) showing the relative internet and non-internet, moving annual total, sales from late 2007 by month. As before it highlights that high street sales have been and continue to go nowhere! As, we have mentioned before, the Boston Consulting Group forecast  in their report (The $4.2 Trillion opportunity) http://i.co.uk/?p=4721 that this trend is likely to continue with the high streets market share contracting at around 2.75% a year from 2010 through 2016.

Further details and explanations are either in the ONS release on the statistics or on their website. As previously mentioned a retail convention of a 4, 4, 5 week quarter is used by the ONS (March June September and December are 5 week months). To cater for the inconvenience of years not having 364 days every 6 years or so an extra week is included in the statistics. The ONS adds this in January.

Searching all over the world

It’s the time of year when Google tells us what we’ve all been searching for this year.

Impressive content and maps  as one might expect.

The UK results are as follows:Much more on the UK section of their site

We’ll leave you with their 2013 video.

The US online Spendfest continues apace especially at weekends

Over there comScore have noticed a rather interesting trend during their somewhat shortened holiday season with an increased level of online spending over the weekends with a staggering increase of nearly 71% occurring on the weekend after cyber Monday (that’s 7& 8 December). They reckon it might be due to showrooming and increasing mobile device usage to sort of preview purchases.

Their Chairman Gian Fulgoni said “The weekend is typically a lighter period of online buying than during workdays, but the weekend surges we’re seeing may be attributable to the effects of showrooming, with the in-store shopping experience increasingly getting disrupted by comparison shopping on mobile phones, leading to more conversions online after leaving the store. Of course, it’s also likely that many consumers realize the holiday spending clock is ticking and are urgently buying their gifts whenever they have time. And that, in turn, works to the benefit of e-commerce.”

Total online spend US 2013- Black Friday and Cyber Monday $ millions
Total Mobile  Desktop
m-commerce e-commerce
Black Friday 1,512 314 1,198
Cyber Monday 2,085 350 1,735
% 100% 18.5% 81.5%
Source: comScore
Compilation: I.co.uk

The mobile spend shows that nearly 1 dollar in 5 of the spend comes via mobile devices and that online sales were over $2 billion for the first time on Cyber Monday.

Keep an I on our Week – All I want edition

It was a LeWeb week and one of the highlights we thought was last weeks Top of our Best sellers Gary Vaynerchuk’s appearance (warning repetitive profanities) so we’ve added him to our top of the week list:

This years Tech Rich List retains its popularity, and the Top Twentythirteen Twitter Topics  globally and in the UK is a summary of their year

We’ll leave you with Olivia Olson’s version of the classic All I want for Christmas which has made  a welcome return to the charts (Mariah Carey’s rendition). We still prefer this  British movie version.  

Top Twentythirteen Twitter Topics

Twitter released their global and UK information for 2013 earlier this week and have a pretty impressive section of their site devoted to the global  results.  and you can compare and contrast with 2012 and 2011.

On the UK front here are the top topics by category.

Click to enlarge

Much more on the respective blogs:

We’ll leave you with Twitters video

A Decade of LeWeb

SOCIAL: @leweb The app Dashboard

LINKS: Plenary 2 (Startup Competition)/ Hangouts

DAY 1, 2 & 3: Replays

Gary Vaynerchuk and Loic Le Meur (extreme & repetitive language warning!) – Jab Jab Jab Right Hook – Gary’s best selling book
Plenary 1

Day 3 Programme (All times are CET which is GMT +1 hour)

08.00-09.00 – Welcome Buffet Breakfast

09.20 Welcome Back, Geraldine & Loic Le Meur, LeWeb Founders

09.25 The Future of TV

Moderated by Adrian Monck, Managing Director, Head of Communications and Media, World Economic Forum

Bruno Patino, Senior Vice President of Programming, Network TV and Digital Strategy, France Télévisions Group

Kenneth “KC” Estenson, Senior Vice President & General Manager, CNN.com

There are several players competing for control of the future of the TV industry. Entrepreneurs creating new technologies that transform and improve a viewer’s experience; the powerful, established distribution companies; and groups creating original content who are getting lots of traction.  Hear from France Television and CNN on how they feel the television will evolve over the next 10 years, followed by a moderated Q&A.

10.05 Ramez Naam, Computer Scientist, Futurist & Award-Winning Author

The Wired Brain

Science is making surprisingly fast progress at interfacing electronics with the human brain, allowing men and women to send sights, sounds, touch in and out of their minds, to computers, and perhaps to each other.  Ramez Naam, author of Nexus, gives a whirlwind tour of the frontier of the ultimate Human Computer Interface, and how it will change all of us.

10.30 U.S. VC Roundtable

On Tuesday, European VCs took the stage to discuss the state of funding in Europe.  Now hear from U.S. VC visionaries about the rise of crowd-funding and syndicates and what that means.  As well as their hear predictions about what this all might look like in 10 years time in the U.S.

Moderated By Roxanne Varza, Startup Lead, Microsoft France

Jeff Clavier, Founder & Managing Partner, SoftTech VC

David Hornik, General Partner, August Capital

Benjamin Ling, Investment Partner, Khosla Ventures

10.50 Arnaud Montebourg , Minister of Redressement Productif

Roundtable Discussion

Loic Le Meur, Co-Founder, LeWeb

Jeff Clavier, Founder & Managing Partner, SoftTech VC

Fabrice Grinda, Internet Entrepreneur, Angel Investor & Co-Founder & Co-CEO, OLX

Arnaud Montebourg , Minister of Redressement Productif

11.20 Digital Women Influencers Roundtable

Moderated By: Paul Papadimitriou, Founder & CEO, Digital Intelligence

Katia Beauchamp, Co-Founder, Birchbox

Maelle Gavet, CEO, OZON Holdings

Geraldine Le Meur, Co-Founder, LeWeb

11.40 Stijn van der Linden, Virtox

See how this Dutch artist is embracing 3D printing by using a mixture of nature and technology theat fuels his inspiration while he explores forms, materials and functions.

11.50 James Currier Co-Founder Ooga Labs & Curator of the NFX Conference for network effect businesses

Growth and Network Effects for Marketplaces and Networks

12.10 Kevin Marks  Founder, Microformats and tummelvision.tv

“The Web We Found”

A decade ago, in the wake of the dotcom crash, we reinvented the web as a personal space, building on existing standards to create the blogging and social network revolutions that have overturned publishing and communications. We’ve seen companies come and go, devices rise and fall, but the core values of the web remained to underpin it all. The challenge is to ensure we don’t lose sight of these as we build for the next decade. The Indieweb principles hold up over time, and like the open standard and open source models we all now accept, give a framework where everyone’s contribution can survive.

12.30-14.00 – LUNCH BREAK

14.00 Marco Tempest, Adventurer, Scientist, Showman, Dreamer & Hero

 To try to describe a Marco Tempest session would not do it justice. We are pleased to welcome Marco back to LeWeb to amaze us yet again with his extraordinary talents.

 14.00 Jean-Baptiste Rudelle, Co-Founder & CEO, Criteo and Loic Le Meur, Co-Founder, LeWeb

In October, French online advertising firm Criteo raised $250 million from its U.S. IPO. The start-up became a darling among online advertisers because of their technology known as “re-targeting” which catches users who have visited a shopping website without buying anything, and then shows them ads for similar items on other sites to tempt them back.  Founder JB Rudelle joins us to talk about their recent successes and the future of the ad tech space.

14.40 Grégoire Henrion, Co-Founder, Mindie

14.45 Fleur Pellerin, Minister Delegate with responsibility for  Small and Medium-sized Enterprises,  Innovation and the Digital Economy, French Government and Loic Le Meur, Co-Founder, LeWeb

It is our pleasure to invite Fleur Pellerin back to LeWeb this year to give us an update on the digital economy in France and her views on the future of the global tech economy.

We are pleased to bring back to the stage the 3 finalists from the LeWeb Start-Up Competition last year.  They will give us an update on their businesses and let us know what is on the horizon for them.

15.05 Start-Up Competition Winners (2012)

We are pleased to bring back to the stage the 3 finalists from the LeWeb Start-Up Competition last year.  They will give us an update on their businesses and let us know what is on the horizon for them.

Nicolas Mendiharat, Recommend

Albert Szulman, Be-Bound

Cyrille Vincey, Qunb

15.30 Start-Up Competition Finalist Demos & Awards Ceremony Featuring All-Star Judges:

Pascal Cagni, Former General Manager and Vice President  Apple Europe, Middle-East, India, and Africa

Jacques-Antoine Granjon, Founder & CEO, vente-privee.com

Brent Hoberman, Co Founder, PROfounders Capital, Co Founder, Made.com, Co Founder, Founders Forum, Co Founder, lastminute.com

Fleur Pellerin, Minister Delegate with responsibility for Small and Medium-sized Enterprises,  Innovation and the Digital Economy, French Government

Xavier Niel, Founder of the Iliad Group, Free’s parent company; Vice‐President & Director of Strategy, Iliad Group

Marc Simoncini, Founder & CEO, Meetic & Jaina Capital

Yossi Vardi, Pioneer, Investor & Entrepreneur

Finalist company demos and Q&A with judges

Chris Shipley, Founder & CEO, Guidewire Labs

16.03 Fabrice Grinda, Internet Entrepreneur, Angel Investor & Co-Founder & Co-CEO, OLX

The next 10 years: the case for optimism

16.23 Presentation of Awards

16.30 Closing remarks, Geraldine & Loic Le Meur, LeWeb Founders

Keep an I on our Week – Doom and Gloom edition

Our top three articles this week were:

  1. Super Sized Cyber Monday 
  2. Black Friday Prime Airports and Octopads 
  3. Billions of Connected Devices to Ship in 2014 

This years Tech Rich List retains its popularity,

Our Doom balloon landed very close by earlier this week and clearly, with hindsight, was a warning of our catastrophic cricket performance in Adelaide.

Hope it lifts off fairly soon ie by Perth!

We’ll leave you with this weeks new #1 Under Control by  DJ’s Calvin Harris & Alesso with vocals from  Hurts

Billions of connected device shipments in 2014

Seasonal forecasts for connected device sales / shipments are beginning to appear and  the more popular ones are measured in the billions.

Starting at the top in volume terms Digitimes predict 1.24 billion smartphones will ship next year and that the leading suppliers are likely to be:

  1. Samsung
  2. Apple
  3. LG
  4. Sony
  5. Lenovo
  6. Huawei
  7. Microsoft
  8. ZTE
  9. Coolpad
  10. TCL

Click to enlarge

On the Tablet front Canalys  are going for a little under 0.3 billion while PC’s are at an almost identical level.

Click to enlarge

Predictably Apple & Samsung are at #’s 1 & 2 on the tablet vendor front.Canalys  predict some disruption on the PC vendor side “Expect 2014 to bring a flurry of acquisitions, mergers, and failures as PC hardware vendors of all sizes struggle to maintain their desktop and notebook business while attempting to capitalize on a tablet market that will see great volumes driving limited value.”

Wearables predictions vary widely but an average might be up to 100 million or so looking at BI Intelligence’s analysis produced earlier this year.

Wearables are certainly attracting greatly increased developer interest as clearly shown by Strategy Analytics recent poll as per our header graphic.

Connected TV’s could also reach the 100 million level and we mustn’t forget e-readers, games consoles, set top boxes and of course the internet of things devices

So getting out our trusty calculator we reckon this lot comes to well over 2 billion!