iPhone Sales to be over 50 million in Q4?

Virtually everyone seems to agree that over ¼ of a  billion smartphones were shipped last quarter and that android has an overall share of more than 80% of the market. There have been some rather interesting stats produced in connection with some of these estimates.

Our header graphic is from TrendForce and forecasts quarter 4 iPhone shipments of 46 million which would be nearly 2 million down on the same quarter last year. We think in fact they may exceed  last year and could  just top the 50 million level. We don’t recognise TrendForces quarter 3 figure of 36 million as Apple reported 33.8 and TrendForce also quote this in theircommentary. Probably just a typo.

It’s the product mix which is fascinating with them predicting that in Q4 it will be:

  • iPhone 5    –    6%
  • iPhone 5C  -  24%
  • iPhone 5S  -  70%

Whilst the 5C might disappoint some, the 5C will likely please many with its higher average selling price (asp).

Which sort of brings us to IDC’s nice little graph from our favourite chartists showing the relative asp’s by operating system.

Saving you some hover time shows the following:

Smartphone Average Selling Prices (asp) by Operating System ($)
2012 2013
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
iOS 688 675 676 660 627 635
Blackberry 340 324 322 367 425 386
Windows Phone 374 310 379 353 304 287
Android 333 313 300 285 289 268
Other 254 236 204 194 135 125
Compilation: I.co.uk
Source: IDC November 2013

Whilst again we can’t directly correlate the iOS asps to Apples declared results (the IDC figures are 5% -10% higher & we guess this likely is because of certain negatives/reserves  taken by Apple) the Android trend is interesting in that it now is at its recent lowest at 42.2% of the iOS comparative. We wonder when (if ever) it will level out!

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