Adobe have just come up with a timely reminder that as Thanksgiving is 6 days later in 2013 vs. 2012 online sales could be up to $1.5 billion lower this year on the basis of their Adobe Digital Index. So the corollary must be that total US retail spending could be many billions less!
We’ve probably over complicated their chart (by adding dates and highlighting the early season days) but it still hopefully tells the overall story.
There are only 27 days between Thanksgiving and Christmas this year which we reckon is an 18% reduction on last year. Thanksgiving is always the fourth Thursday in November.
In reality we think that overall US e-commerce retail sales could well be up on last year but that the pattern could be significantly different. Already there are some reports of nearly 1 in 3 consumers intending to start the seasons shopping ahead of Thanksgiving.
It will be interesting to see how ComScore’s numbers add up this year. We have followed them in previous years as they are one of the leading analysts reporting on the Thanksgiving through Christmas period.
Adobe reckon that Thanksgiving/Black Friday/Cyber Monday increases year-on-year could be 21%/17%/15%.
We guess it just might be a bit more and therefore on a Comscore basis we are going for over $1.25 billion on Black Friday and a whopping $1.75 + billion on Cyber Monday.
We shall see!