Apple results, for their Q4 2013 (13 weeks ending September 28) should be released around 8.30 pm GMT followed fairly rapidly by their Conference Call at 9pm GMT (2pm PST) which you can listen to live.
ROUNDUP am October 29
From Apple:
- Press Release – Earnings release
- SEC Filing quarterly results filing
- Conference call replay
- Share price (WSJ)
From elsewhere:
- Conference call transcript The Morning Star
Instant analyst opinions/headlines:
- Bloomberg –Apple Forecasting Slower Holiday Sales Amid Samsung Gains
- Financial Times – Apple upbeat over iPhone sales momentum
- Reuters - Apple results disappoint ahead of holiday quarter
- Wall Street Journal – Apple Shows Its Mettle Ahead of Holiday Season
Our view
We sort of go with the WSJ in that maybe even with the flatlining in revenues margins are stabilising and IF new product categories are introduced in 2014 (iWatch & iScreen (a “real” TV) then the growth could pick up again.
Whilst Samsung now have over a 1/3 of the global market for smartphones this is already near a billion annually so there should be room there for a healthy number of significant competitors!
UPDATE October 28 – 8.35pm GMT – Results announced:
- Revenues $37.5 bn
- EPS $8.26
- Share price after hours initially down to $505 then recovering to $530 ish during, but back to $518 after, the conference call (Formal close was at $529.88)
- Unit sales Macs 4.6mn, iPods 3.5mn iPhones 33.8mn, iPads 14.1mn
- Guidance Q1 2014 – Revenues $55bn – $58bn Gross margin 36.5% -37.5%
Conference call
- Tim Cook thanks all long term shareholders – Mr Icahn may not appreciate that one!
- He also reckons ” … it’s going to be an iPad Christmas.”
- Apple share of tablets in education is 94%! WOW
We’ll do a full wrap up tomorrow with transcripts and instant reactions.
UPDATED SCHEDULE
Click to enlarge
The, sort of, headline figures to look out for we think are:
- If their revenues are less than $35 bn this quarter it will be the first year on year quarterly decrease we think since Q4 of 2002!
- Quarter 4 results consensus (Professionals/The Street) Revenues / Earnings per share – $37 bn / $7.96
- Quarter 1 mid guidance consensus Revenues / Earnings per share – $55.65 bn / $13.86
- The share price recovery continues and it closed Friday at $527.55 about $175 down from its peak of just over $700 in mid September last year. We think Carl Icahn makes a compelling argument simply on the numbers front for an increased buy back programme, although it always strike us as a rather negative use of generated profits.
The source of much of our information is Philip Elmer-Dewitt editor of Apple 2.0 to whom we, and likely many others are indebted.
Our normal graphic uses his info for the Professionals and Independents figures and the mid guidance information from Apple. We also add our guesses. We’re going a bit low on some of our guesses
We will in particular to see if our revenue flatlining prediction continues or whether like Google Microsoft and Amazon they can give the market a pleasant surprise!
We will report back later after the results are released and the Conference call has taken place. Usually the Q & A session adds value. We shall see, or rather hear, if this continues to be the case!
