Apple revenues to drop for first time since 2002? – Nope!

Apple results, for their Q4 2013 (13 weeks ending September 28) should be released around 8.30 pm GMT followed fairly rapidly by their Conference Call at 9pm GMT (2pm PST) which you can listen to live.

ROUNDUP am October 29

 From Apple:

From elsewhere:

Instant analyst opinions/headlines:

 Our view

We sort of go with the WSJ in that maybe even with the flatlining in revenues margins are stabilising and IF new product categories are introduced in 2014 (iWatch & iScreen (a “real” TV) then the growth could pick up again.

Whilst Samsung now have over a 1/3 of the global market for smartphones  this is already near a billion annually so there should be room there for a healthy number of significant competitors! 

UPDATE  October 28 – 8.35pm GMT – Results announced:

  • Revenues $37.5 bn
  • EPS $8.26
  • Share price after hours initially down to $505 then recovering to $530 ish during, but back to $518 after, the conference call (Formal close was at $529.88)
  • Unit sales Macs  4.6mn, iPods 3.5mn iPhones 33.8mn, iPads 14.1mn
  • Guidance Q1 2014 –  Revenues $55bn – $58bn  Gross margin 36.5% -37.5%

Press Release

SEC Filing

Conference call

  • Tim Cook thanks all long term shareholders – Mr Icahn may not appreciate that one!
  • He also reckons ” … it’s going to be an iPad Christmas.”
  • Apple share of tablets in education is 94%! WOW

We’ll do a full wrap up tomorrow with transcripts and instant reactions.

UPDATED SCHEDULE

Click to enlarge

The, sort of, headline figures to look out for we think are:

  • If their revenues are less than $35 bn this quarter it will be the first year on year quarterly decrease we think since Q4 of 2002!
  • Quarter 4 results consensus (Professionals/The Street) Revenues / Earnings per share – $37 bn / $7.96
  • Quarter 1 mid guidance  consensus Revenues / Earnings per share – $55.65 bn / $13.86
  • The share price recovery continues and it closed Friday at $527.55 about $175  down from its peak of just over $700 in mid September last year. We think Carl Icahn makes a compelling argument simply on the numbers front for an increased buy back programme, although it always strike us as a rather negative use of generated profits.

The source of much of our information is Philip Elmer-Dewitt editor of Apple 2.0 to whom we, and likely many others are indebted.

Our normal graphic uses his info for the Professionals and Independents figures and the mid guidance information from Apple. We also add our guesses. We’re going a bit low on some of our guesses  

We will in particular to see if our revenue flatlining prediction continues or whether like Google Microsoft and Amazon they can give the market a pleasant surprise!

We will report back later after the results are released and the Conference call has taken place. Usually the Q & A session adds value. We shall see, or rather hear, if this continues to be the case!

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