Tablet sales to overtake PCs within a month

Well, sort of!

We have been predicting that, due to their seasonality, tablet sales would quite possibly outsell PCs in quarter 4 2013 and we are pleased to see confirmation from IDC in their latest worldwide smart connected device shipment forecasts.

Having had a look at the trailing moving annual total information gathered from their quarterly releases we think they are a little pessimistic in saying that annually tablets will overtake PCs in 2015.

Our graph uses a linear trend line and it looks as if they might just make it in 2014.

To be fair looking at it from IDC’s perspective, and as ever with a little deduction involved, it looks as if their 2015 forecast might breakdown as follows (millions of units):

Desktop PC 181
Portable PC 125
Tablet 322
Smartphone 1,401
Total 2,029

So that would show total PCs at some 306 million and tablets at 322. If we feed these into our graph it shows a crossover point of quarter 2 of 2015 so it could be said as it was that “ Tablet Shipments Forecast to Top Total PC Shipments … Annually by 2015,”

On the value/pricing front IDC have some rather interesting words we thought.

“In terms of shipment value, the worldwide smart connected device market will again exhibit double-digit year-over-year growth of 10.6% in 2013, but this growth will gradually slow to just 3.1% in 2017. The tapering revenue forecast reflects the increasing impact of low-cost smartphones and the white box tablet market. Worldwide smart connected device value is expected to be $622.4 billion in 2013, of which $423.1 billion will come from the sub-$350 smartphone and sub-$350 tablet segments collectively. “At a time when the smartphone and tablet markets are showing early signs of saturation, the emergence of lower-priced devices will be a game-changer,” said Megha Saini, Research Analyst with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Smart Connected Device Tracker. “Introducing new handsets and tablet devices at cheaper price points along with special initiatives like trade-in programs from Apple and BestBuy will accelerate the upgrade cycle and expand the total addressable market overnight.””

We’ll leave you with our favoured chartists contribution to the debate!

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Graph data: We’ve changed the % calculation to reflect the TOTAL percentage whereas previously we expressed it simply on PC sales. We think this is possibly more meaningful!

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