We have been predicting that, due to their seasonality, tablet sales would quite possibly outsell PCs in quarter 4 2013 and we are pleased to see confirmation from IDC in their latest worldwide smart connected device shipment forecasts.
Having had a look at the trailing moving annual total information gathered from their quarterly releases we think they are a little pessimistic in saying that annually tablets will overtake PCs in 2015.
Our graph uses a linear trend line and it looks as if they might just make it in 2014.
To be fair looking at it from IDC’s perspective, and as ever with a little deduction involved, it looks as if their 2015 forecast might breakdown as follows (millions of units):
So that would show total PCs at some 306 million and tablets at 322. If we feed these into our graph it shows a crossover point of quarter 2 of 2015 so it could be said as it was that “ Tablet Shipments Forecast to Top Total PC Shipments … Annually by 2015,”
On the value/pricing front IDC have some rather interesting words we thought.
“In terms of shipment value, the worldwide smart connected device market will again exhibit double-digit year-over-year growth of 10.6% in 2013, but this growth will gradually slow to just 3.1% in 2017. The tapering revenue forecast reflects the increasing impact of low-cost smartphones and the white box tablet market. Worldwide smart connected device value is expected to be $622.4 billion in 2013, of which $423.1 billion will come from the sub-$350 smartphone and sub-$350 tablet segments collectively. “At a time when the smartphone and tablet markets are showing early signs of saturation, the emergence of lower-priced devices will be a game-changer,” said Megha Saini, Research Analyst with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Smart Connected Device Tracker. “Introducing new handsets and tablet devices at cheaper price points along with special initiatives like trade-in programs from Apple and BestBuy will accelerate the upgrade cycle and expand the total addressable market overnight.””
We’ll leave you with our favoured chartists contribution to the debate!