Will we all spend £200 online on Christmas this year?

Peerius, a European leader in omni-channel personalisation, have just released some apparently contradictory opinions on what the upcoming spendfest (as we like to call it) holds for us all in the UK.

On the one hand:

  • 88% of retailers surveyed* expect online sales to grow by 20% or more, whilst 25% expect online sales to grow by 50% or more.

But on the other hand:

  • Two thirds (66%) of  consumers surveyed* expect to spend “the same as last year”, 16% expect to spend less than they did in 2012 and just 17% expect to spend more.

Peerius’s view is that “ These findings are a timely reminder for retailers that there is no room for complacency. If retailers are to deliver the online sales performance they are hoping for, and on which survival may well depend, the hard work starts now because it appears that delivering growth will mean taking a larger share of spend rather than benefiting from significantly higher spending overall”

Wise words for delivery to the retailers! Now about those consumers!

We think, they as a group on this topic may mis-speak and it would be most interesting for YouGuv to go back to the same consumers after the actual event and after having audited all their bank & credit card statements ask them, on oath, what they actually spent. We think there is an inbuilt understatement bias as far as overall Christmas spending is concerned.

The opposite might also be said of the retailers!

What is undoubtedly true, in our opinion, is that we will spend more online this year during the spendfest season than we did last year. Looking at the Office for National Statistics internet Retail Sales figures which we analyse monthly the December figures have quite remarkably increased consistently since 2007 by over half a billion pounds virtually every year.

  • 2007 – £1.4 bn (+£0.6bn)
  • 2008 – £2.0 bn (+£0.6bn)
  • 2009 – £2.4 bn (+£0.4bn)
  • 2010 – £3.1 bn (+£0.7bn)
  • 2011 – £3.6 bn (+£0.5bn)
  • 2012  - £4.2bn (+£0.6bn)

So almost certainly that’s over 10% and we guess it might just be nearer 15% as we may all think we, as well as the economy, are recovering and dig deeper into our savings/facilities/limits.

Our headline comes for a very approximate average calculation derived from Peeriius’s research of what consumers said they intend spending. (To make up the full 100% you have to add the 13%, in total, who either don’t spend online [10%] or don’t celebrate Christmas [3%]). We of course think the average might be a little more than £200!

We’ll leave you with Peerius’s top ten consumer pet hates re online retail. (Number 6 is much higher up our list particularly where there is a price consideration!) Their complete report is downloadable on registration.

  1. Websites with pop-up advertising (40%)
  2. Badly organised websites that make it hard to find what I am looking for (38%)
  3. Websites that are slow (30%)
  4. Websites with pop-up surveys (28%)
  5. Websites with insufficient product information (26%)
  6. Websites that tell me a product is out of stock after I have bought it (26%)
  7. Websites that display search results that are not relevant to the products I searched for (23%)
  8. Websites that tell me they use cookies every time I go to a new page (18%)
  9. Websites that present product recommendations that are totally inappropriate (9%)
  10. Websites that promote products I have already bought, either on the site, or via email (7%)

*The Peerius Survey and Online Retail decision maker research

Consumer online research

“All figures, unless otherwise stated, are from YouGuv Plc. Total sample size was 2,048 adults. Fieldwork was undertaken between 23rd – 25th July 2013. The survey was carried out online all figures have been weighted and are representative of all GB adults (aged 18+).”

The online retail decision maker research

“Peerius carried out detailed interviews with decision-makers from 25 leading online retailers. Face to face interviews took place in June 2013.”

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