Tablet Sales to overtake PCs next year

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Over the last few months we’ve run a couple of articles looking at the possible crossover point of the two devices and when Tim Cook’s “…. it’s only a matter of time” might materialise. It has been getting nearer and nearer!

Following IDC’s latest tablet shipment’s release there has been some comments on the closing shipment levels of tablets and PCs:

Our graph (with linear trendlines) and IDC’s data now estimates a Q4 2014 crossover.

Over the last couple of years as per our table on average the quarterly seasonality has shown a low 1st quarter followed by a couple of comparatively even ones and then the annual spendfest bonanza. These trends have been reinforced, unsurprisingly, to an extent by product announcements ahead of or during the last quarter.

Several earlier estimates this year were for an annual shipments totaling 200 million.

Tablet sales/shipments estimates 2013 (millions)
Historical Actual Forecast
average% units units
Quarter1 14.3% 49.2
Quarter2 20.3% 55.0
Quarter3 23.6% 60.0
Quarter4 41.8% 85.8
Year 100.0% 250.0
Sources: Actual IDC, Forecast & compilation I.co.uk

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In the light of the first quarters actual performance we are guessing a figure of 250 million and the above breakdown by quarter.

If, and it’s a VERY large IF, these guesses turned out to be somewhere near the mark then the crossover point might be as soon as quarter 4 of THIS YEAR! We shall see!

Health warning – Whilst our data is principally sourced from IDC in this article as with most estimates they tend to be subject to regular revision and these revisions may not be publicly available. Our source data in this instance is solely the publicly released data.

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