Apple’s new Results Guidance

ROUNDUP am April 24

 From Apple:

 From elsewhere:

  • Conference call transcript Yahoo

Well keep looking for a complete version and add it later if found! 

Instant analyst opinions/headlines:

April 23 updates & article

Apple‘s results, for their Q2 2013 (13 weeks ended March 30) should be released at about 9.30 pm BST followed fairly rapidly by their Conference Call at 10pm BST (2pm PST) which you can listen to live.

UPDATE  9.45pm BST – Results announced:

  • Revenues $43.6 bn
  • EPS $10.09
  • Dividend +15% (to $3.05 (?)
  • Increasing its buy back programme by $50 billion
  • Share price after hours  sharp movements but post conference call virtually unchanged (Formal close was at $406.13) Dipped initially but came back & then rose quickly & then fell back! – Possibly  buy back programme stsbilissed the price. Nasdaq after hours price  Wall Street Journal after hours price
  • Unit sales millions Macs  4.0, iPods 5.6, iPhones 37.4, iPads 19.5
  • Guidance Q 3 Revenues $33.5 – $35.5 Gross margin 36% -37%

Info:

We’ll do a full wrap up tomorrow with transcripts and instant reactions. The conference call was introduced with almost funereal music! Tim Cook, sort of, apologised for the share price performance. Quite a lot of discussion on margins unsurprisingly. Also more detail on the buy back programme which seems to be starting almost immediately and goes through 2015.

UPDATED Results schedule

ORIGINAL ARTICLE

The, sort of, headline figures to look out for we think are:

  • Quarter 2 results consensus Revenues / Earnings per share – $42.4 bn / $10.00
  • Quarter 3 mid guidance  consensus Revenues / Earnings per share – $38.91 bn / $9.08 (based on last quarters guidance this might imply an expected range of revenues of $38-$40 bn and gross margins of 38%-39%)
  • Some believe the dividend may be lifted by over 50% to $4.14 (from the current $2.65). At this level it would yield more than most dividend paying stocks in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index and be up there with the highest yielding technology stocks. Others think it will remain unchanged!
  • The share price continues it’s weakness but had a mini rally yesterday to close at just under $400 ($398.67) down from its peak of just over $700 in mid September last year. Early on today it was over $400.

The source of much of our information is Philip Elmer-Dewitt editor of Apple 2.0 to whom we, and likely many others, are indebted. We’ve collated certain of his information and apologise lest we have miscompiled in any way!

Our normal graphic uses simple averages (mean) for the Professionals and Independent figures and the mid guidance information from Apple. We also add our guesses. We’re going low on the iPad as the tablet market is hugely competitive. We will update these after the results come out.

This is the first Quarter in which Apples new guidance will be tested – we mentioned before that this departure from their historic practice was significant and we as well as they will be disappointed if they under (or over) shoot their range.

To put this in context Philip Elmer-Dewitt’s graph shows the extent to which Apple have historically overshot their guidance. This go round we think their guidance range is probably something like $9.33 to $10.33.

We will report back later after the results are released and the Conference call has taken place. Usually the Q & A session adds value. We shall see, or rather hear, if this continues to be the case!

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