Tablet sales could exceed 50 million this Quarter as Notebook sales collapse

Notebook shipments in the last quarter were down by almost 7 million both on the last quarter of 2013 and quarter 1 of 2012 Digitimes Research indicated today. . This is a double digit percentage fall in both cases (14.1% and 13.7% respectively). They report that this was “the sharpest decline in the notebook industry’s history.”

The leading suppliers are given as:

  •  Lenovo
  • HP
  • Acer
  •  Samsung
  • Asustek

Digitimes say that it’s likely that Samsung was the only vendor to show both quarterly and year-on-year growth.

As Tablets are displacing Notebooks to a significant extent we wondered if the relationship between the two devices gave any indications of the likely future trends.

From our graph the linear trend line on tablets, very approximately, indicates quarter 1 of 2013 shipments of 45 million and around 200 million for the year. We have seen not totally dissimilar annual figures from both Gartner (197.2 million) and IDC (190.9 million) which we commented on when predicting when Tablet shipments might overtake PCs.

Notebooks we see recorded drops from Q4 to Q1 in 2012 and 2011 of 5.1% and 7.6% when arguably their market was mature. A similar reduction in Tablet shipments would imply a figure between 48.5 and 49.8 million units.

With the majors announcing their quarterly results later this month worldwide estimates should be forthcoming soon thereafter and it will be interesting to see if, with the rumoured, strong market, tablet shipment are close to the 50 million level. We certainly expect them to be well over 45 million

We doubt whether on an annual basis yesterdays rumour of a 7” Microsoft tablet introduction later this year will increase shipments much over the 200 million level!

We wondered if they might call the Surface mini the reSurface!

We shall see!

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