More reasons why iPad sales may be less than 15 million this quarter

Apple are due to announce their 2nd quarter (13 weeks ending March 30th) results on April 23rd.

There has been a fair amount of talking down of the likely outcome with, interesting revenue projections released by Guy Munster of Piper Jaffray which AppleInsider covered in some detail.

In addition to the revenue side a wealth of comment  has followed Display Search’s  data indicating that iPad maxi orders collapsed between January and December based on the above panel shipment by size information.

On the iPad’s third birthday we thought we’d have a look at unit sales from some slightly different angles.

1 Proportion of unit sales

IDC recently moved their tablet shipment forecast for the year up to 191mn units and reckoned Apple might have a 46% market share so that on our calculator (as previously mentioned) comes to 87.8mn units.

Now looking historically at the proportion of a calendar years unit sales Apple has done in calendar quarter 1 it came to 18% in 2012 and 11.6% in 2011.

Applying these two percentages to IDC’s 87.8mn units gives us a figure between 10.2mn and 15.8mn.

2 Historic countback

Following Q4 of 2011’s (then) bumper unit sales by Apple of 15.5mn Q1 of 2012 came in at 11.8mn just a little (7%) above Q3 of 2011’s of 11.0mn.

If Apples rather disappointing Q4 iPad sales of 22.9mn dropped back to 7% over the Q3 figure they would come in at 15mn.

3 Proportion of revenues

Using Piper Jaffray’s $41.7 billion revenue figure for the quarter and applying the proportion of revenues iPads were reported by Apple to have generated (pdf) in Q1 of 2012 (their Q2 of course) gives us a figure of 16% so that’s total revenues of some $6.7 billion. Now again from Apples Reclassified Summary Data the iPad average selling price (asp) was $466.93 in calendar Q4. This incidentally was the first quarter of iPad mini Sales and saw an 8.1% reduction in the asp from the previous quarter. We’re going to guess a further 8% drop down to $430 this quarter reflecting the switch to the mini (which we feel may be overstated elsewhere).

This produces unit sales of 15.4 mn.

So there it is then all three approaches come up with the magic figure 15!

We shall see!

Disclosure: We have no position in Apple Inc

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