Earlier this week IDC released their latest Smart Connected Device Tracker report forecasting worldwide shipments of smart connected devices through 2017.
Their and many of the other commentators headlines have been “…tablet shipments will surpass desktop PCs in 2013 and portable PCs in 2014” but we think the most interesting element is the likely crossover of Tablet & total PC’s certainly on an annual basis in 2018. With the holiday buying season favouring Tablets we think on these projections that they will exceed PC’s in quarter 4 of 2017.
We have been looking at the crossover point for nearly a year now and it has come in from 2022 in just under a year. The reason as we have mentioned before is more the flatlining of PC’s as opposed to huge increases in the Tablet forecasts.
Whilst it’s a bit Apple’s and Oranges looking at the Gartner IDC combo where we forecast the 2022 cross over the 2016 TOTAL Tablet & PC forecasts came to just under 890 million units wheras now IDC are forecasting this total to be just over 690 million units. The difference is 140 million less PC’s and 60 million tablets.
In the IDC forecast which envisages the connected devices shipments (which of course includes smartphones) nearly doubling from last years 1.2 billion to 2.25 by 2017.
We think Bob O’Donnell IDC’s Program Vice President for Clients and Displays makes a most valid point when saying “Consumers and business buyers are now starting to see smartphones, tablets, and PCs as a single continuum of connected devices separated primarily by screen size,”
If we look back to when truly mobile devices overtook PC’s it was likely 2010/11!
The only omission from the connected devices is the largest screen that is most watched at home ie the ubiquitous TV. We wonder whether with a lot of help from Apple and others this will become the “home hub” for in house screens.
We shall see.
We will leave you with our favourite chartists very colourful depiction of the figures we have used as the primary source for our graphic!