Smartphones – plurality in 2012, majority in 2013

IHSiSuppli in their latest forecast see “The rise of smartphones to a plurality share this year….” and “Driven by increased demand from developed regions for high-end models, along with an unexpectedly strong push from emerging economies for lower-cost products, smartphones are expected to rise to account for the majority of global cellphone shipments in 2013—two years earlier than previously predicted”.

They see smartphone shipments rising from 46% this year to 54% in 2013 and reaching over two thirds by 2016.

Click to enlarge

Digitimes  in their latest 2012 forecast see android global shipments rising from over 60% in the first half of the year to more than 70% in the second half, “…. as several major Android handset vendors such as Samsung Electronics, Huawei and ZTE are all starting to pump up their shipments in the third quarter, while second-tier vendors, regional brand vendors, and white-box players are also aggressively launching new entry-level Android-based handsets in the China market”,

Alongside their graph we’ve switched round the growth rates to show them by operating system. Adding a unit perspective using some extrapolation we think the main 2012 numbers they are forecasting could be:

Forecast unit shipments 2012 (millions)
Android* 425
iOS 125
Windows 21
Other* 79
Total* 650
Source: Digitimes Compilation & extrapolations*

Some believe, as detailed in The Wall Street Journal, that Microsoft could be a net beneficiary of the recent Apple Samsung patent verdict. Their graph clearly shows they have a way to go!

We think (and hope) that commercial settlement of patent wars will prevail but that this could lead to an Apple tax.

We shall see!

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