Who will spring forward this fall?

As we approach autumn/the fall (September 22) three of the 4 trillionaire club members have already announced (or in one case heavily leaked) dates of media events / product launches.

In alphabetical order we have:

  • amazon  Their Californian Press Conference may in fact not be to announce the widely rumoured kindle fire 2 upgrades.  These may follow at a later date. Some feel  the LA location may give a hint on some entertainment content deal as they usually hold their product launches in New York. We hope that at a minimum the roll out of kindle fires internationally is included (or being parochial at least to the UK). To be honest we think they have to announce significant kindle fire product/content upgrades to compete with the other three.


  • Apple are strongly rumoured now to be having two media events to avoid message dilution. iPhone 5 in early September & then a further one for the MiNi iPad in October. We had a quick look at the sites to see if they confirmed any activity but nothing so far on either iPadMini.com or MiniiPad.com we’re afraid. We did like Ciccaresedesign’s  graphic (and their site). The ecosystems expansion continues but it looks as if the Apple TV may be at least delayed into 2013. We shall see.



  • Google have no scheduled or rumoured “events” yet but we will be amazed if they don’t keep up their aggressive marketing of the Nexus7. Pending new events we rather liked their camping video, but we are biased as we continue to enjoy using their product!


  • Microsoft have already announced the launch of Windows 8 on October 26 with its new tiled Metro u/i. Lifehacker has a good runover of it which likely a huge proportion of us will be using in the not too distant future.As far as their Surface Tablet is concerned dates are awaited. It could be launched (again) on the same date with a sort of loss leader price tag – if it is we think it might be a limited offer (in both product & time terms).

So that’s the hors d’oeuvres, now for the main course of tablet sales shipments for the remainder of the year.

Amazon you may recall with a product announcement at the end of September and shipments starting on November 11 last year shipped nearly 5 million kindle fires in the final quarter (or 7 weeks). Currently they do seem to be flat lining at about 1 million units a quarter.

Apple sold just under 15 million units in Q4 2011 representing 35% of their years sales. Their year on year growth for the first half of 2012 shows a figure of over 100%. This will likey slow in q3 but with a new Mini iPad available for the holiday season who can tell! Over 25 million is certainly a possibility in our view.

Google’s Nexus 7 is anecdotally doing quite well. We are sure it must bew hurting the kindle fire in the US. Estimates of up to 8 million for the year (announced end June shipping from mid July) are widespread. We think it could exceed this.

Microsoft will in our opinion have to launch and start shipping their Surface very soon at an attractive introductory price to achieve the 3 million shipments being mentioned. We feel this is optimistic.

We live in exciting times!

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