iPad sales to reach 100 million by September 12?

The, sort of, first worldwide tablet shipments/sales estimates for quarter 2 of 2012 has been produced by Canalys.

You may recall that they call tablets “pads” and categorise them as PC’s! Extracting the tablet figures (with of course the help of Apple’s quarterly data) from their analysis we believe shows the following:.

Canalys Worldwide total Client PC Shipments
Quarter 2 2012 – millions
  Q2 2012   Q1 2012   Q2 2011
   All Pads    All Pads    All Pads
HP 13.5 15.9 15.3
Apple 21.0 17.0 15.8 11.8 13.2  9.2
Lenovo 13.2 12.3 10.4
Acer 10.7 }    ? 10.2
Dell  9.7 }    ? 10.8
Other 40.6  7.0 63.0  8.5 37.4  4.5
Total 108.7 24.0 107.0 20.3 97.3 13.7
Source data: Canalys, Apple

.

They rank tablet companies behind Apple as: 2nd Samsung (Galaxy) 3rd Asus (TF300 + Google’s Nexus7 from next quarter). They estimate that amazon  KindleFire shipments were well down on previous quarters and were less than 500,000. Their Analyst Pin Chen Tang comments “….Amazon must now launch a more powerful replacement for the Kindle Fire, and expand internationally, or see its pad business fail.” That’s to the point! We think amazons tablet business will not fail!

On the question of PC v’s tablets, based on Canalys’s estimates the gap continues to narrow with, we believe, for the first time tablet shipments estimated to be over 22% of total shipments beating Q4 of 2011 when there was the Christmas surge of KindleFire sales. It still looks, to us, as if the crossover could be well before 2020 particularly with Google & Microsoft entering the fray!

.

I.co.uk Worldwide PC & Tablet Market
Quarter 1 2012 – millions
     Q2 2012     Q1 2012     Q4 2011      Q2 2011
# % # % # % # %
Tablet 24.0 22.1% 20.3 19.0% 26.4 22.0% 13.7 14.1%
PC 84.7 77.9% 86.7 81.0% 93.6 78.0% 83.6 85.9%
Difference -60.7 -55.8% -66.4 -62.0% -67.2 -56.0% -69.9 -71.8%
Source data: Canalys
Source calculations: I.co.uk

.

There are increasingly specific rumours  around an Apple “media event” on September 12.

Amongst the possible product announcement is a 7” iPad or the iPad mini as it is increasingly being called although in view of the NEW iPad we predict it may be called the MiNi iPad.

Cumulatively through June 30 from Apples quarterly& annual results they report we calculate, sales of 84.126 million iPads. In the last quarter sales were 17 million and last year from calendar quarter 2 to quarter 3 volumes increased by around 20% (9.2 to 11.1 million). So possibly the weekly run rate might currently be 1.57 million a week. From July 1 to September 12 is 10 weeks and 3 days. We calculate that this comes to a further 16.373 million.

So we conclude 84.126 + 16.373 = 100.499 million iPad sales by September 12.

Our guess is that this will form part of the media event – we shall see!

Speak Your Mind

*