No Blockbuster for Apple this Quarter

 

Click to access updated full graphic

Summarising – July 25

REACTIONS

  1.  Analysts – generally negative & some concern about 4th Quarters guidance
  2. Market – In after hours trade the shares were down by $33.12 (5.5%) at $567.80 (only 9 cents below a remarkable progression)! WSJ quote

RESULTS

  1. Press release 
  2. SEC Filing 

CONFERENCE CALL

  1. Audio
  2. Transcript (SeekingAlpha)

UPDATES -  July 24 pm

Results update 9.32 pm BST – Top line figures are revenues of $35.0 bn and earnings per share of $9.32 which is lower than expectations (Analysts). Shares are (after hours trade) down $33. ish (5.5%) . The Apple earnings press release is here. Dividend of $2.65 per share.

Click to enlarge

We’re off to update our graphic (look left) for the actual results & to listen to their conference call

A summary of the conference call is at AppleInsider.

A point from the Q & A session of the conference call was that cumulatively 84 million iPads have now been sold. So we reckon it’s likely that the 100 million mark will reached in the next quarter!

Update   9.15pm BST Apple shares closed down $2.54 (0.42%) at $601.29 compared to the main markets being down just under 1%. The overall market seems very sensitive to any negatives eg Netflix just announced a near miss on subscriber numbers & their shares fell 10% 15% ish.

Apple shares in after trading are down marginally at $601

Apple is due to announce its 3rd  Quarter 2012 results today after Nasdaq/Wall Street closes. They are usually released some 20-30 minutes after the close.

Their guidance for Q3 was included in their Q2 earnings release and there have been no updates

Our graphic tries to summarise the varying forecasts that surrounds these results together with our own guesstimate (which we apologise for in advance)!

Apples share price has fluctuated over the last 3 months between $530 and $614 but in the last 3-4 weeks has steadied around the $600 level +/- a couple or so percent. In premarket trading today 1.30pm BST they are up a couple or three $’s to just under $607.

Click to enlarge

In the meantime here is Philip Elmer-Dewitt‘s (of Apple 2.0) excellent summary of the numerous analysts views which for this quarter has less detail than historically. We’ve added the averages for the Analyst and Independents categories. His best guess based on his favourites (Independents with the best track record over the last 7 quarters) is Revenues of $41.3 billion and Earnings per share of $12.4 (Gross Margin 45.4%)

Our overall view is that Apple still has much more to come this year in product updates / announcements so this quarter may be more of a consolidation rather than a blockbuster as with the previous 2 quarters.

If you want to catch Apple’s conference call commenting on the results the webcast will be here.  and takes place at 10pm BST 5pm EDT and 2pm PDT.

We will update the graphic after the results & link to Apples earnings release.

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