Internet GB retail sales growth slows in June

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Last Thursday was the third Thursday of the month so The Office for National Statistics (ONS)  published the monthly retail sales figures for June (pdf) We’ve cut the pdf  down to exclude the 85 pages of tables. If you want these, the full version is on the ONS site.

Overall the figures had a mixed reception being headlined as either in line with forecasts or marginally disappointing. No Diamond Jubillee “bounce” was apparent! The weather is still being blamed for unseasonal movements and inflation is seen to be moderating..

Our Internet sales headlines are:

June increases:

  • Year on year +14.3%.(+25.2%) showing a significant slowing after May revision to over 25%
  • Year to date June 2012/2011 + 17.6% (18.4%) a marginal reduction again on a revised upwards May figure.
  • Moving Annual total increases (1) on May 2012 annualised + 13.9% (2) on June 2011 +16.8%
  • The UK’s *largest online retailer is included in the group (Non store retailing) showing 16.7% growth on 2011 and contributing 6.9% to the overall growth of 14.3% (This is an area which is likely to just grow & grow unless further meaningful analysis is undertaken by the ONS)

As always the “history” has been revised by the ONS which this month went back as far as September 2011 with a significant upwards revision to May 2012 sales of +2.9% with the headline weekly Internet sales figure increased to  £525.8 million from the original £510.9 million.

The ONS words are:

“Internet Sales

Key points

  • Average weekly Internet sales values (non-seasonally adjusted) in June 2012 were estimated to be £493.3 million, an increase of 14.3 per cent when compared with June 2011.
  • Internet sales were estimated to account for 8.5 per cent of all retail sales values excluding automotive fuel.
  • The non-store retailing sector had the largest proportion of Internet sales in June 2012 and accounted for 62.0 per cent of all sales in this sector, up from 57.0 per cent in June 2011. The food sector had the lowest proportion of Internet sales and accounted for 3.2 per cent, up from 2.7 per cent a year earlier.

Internet sales in detail

The Internet sales measure how much has been spent online through retailers in Great Britain.Figures are non-seasonally adjusted and the reference year is 2010=100. The table below shows the year-on-year growth rates for total Internet sales, by sector and the contribution that each sector makes to total Internet sales.

.

Category Weight Year on year Contribution to
(YOY) growth YOY growth
All retailing 100.0 14.3%
(a) All food 17.3 18.2% 3.1%
(b) All non-food 41.4 10.1% 4.2%
Department stores 7.0 16.4% 1.1%
Textile clothing & footwear stores 11.7 16.4% 1.9%
Household goods stores 8.2 16.7% 1.4%
Other stores 14.5 -2.0% -0.3%
(c) Non store retailing 41.3 16.7% 6.9%

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We have added our annotations to the ONS table) – The bold categories/ figures in the table are the primary constituents of the total (ie (a) + (b) + (c) = All retailing). Dept. stores, Textile etc, Household etc and Other stores are simply an analysis of (b) All non-food.

* Whilst the ONS will not confirm the names of specific retailers within categories they did say that retailers selling wholly online with no physical outlets would be included in the Non store retailing category along with eg online  mail order retailers.

As previously mentioned the figures are no longer experimental.

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The moving annual total, which we report, moved up again (it has increased EVERY MONTH since October 2007 being the first full year of reporting by the ONS) to an all time high of £27.1bn an increase in the month (adjusted re restatements and revisions) of 1.16% annualised 13.9%. This is well below the long term compound average growth rate (from 2007) of 25.8%.

Our last months aggressive forecast of  £525 million weekly sales with a Diamond Jubilee contribution was 5% above the actuals BUT we did achieve the £27+ billion MAT primarily due to Mays revised figures! For July, with some London 2012 help, we will again go for our £525 million with a MAT reaching £27.5+ billion ish!

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We have again included our experimental graph (e & oe!) showing the relative internet and non-internet, moving annual total, sales from late 2007 by month. As before it highlights that high street sales have been and continue to go nowhere! As, we have mentioned before, the Boston Consulting Group forecast  in their report (The $4.2 Trillion opportunity) that this trend is likely to continue with the high streets market share contracting at around 2.75% a year from 2010 through 2016.

Further details and explanations are either in the ONS release on the statistics or on their website. As previously mentioned a retail convention of a 4, 4, 5 week quarter is used by the ONS. To cater for the inconvenience of years not having 364 days every 6 years or so an extra week is included in the statistics. The ONS adds this in January.

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