Gartner have just released their first quarter worldwide smartphone and mobile sales to end users estimates.
They say “Samsung took back the world’s No. 1 smartphone position from Apple, selling 38 million smartphones worldwide. In addition, Samsung’s Android-based smartphone sales in the first quarter of 2012 represented more than 40 percent of Android-based smartphone sales worldwide; no other vendors achieved more than a 10 percent share of the market.” They estimate Apple sales as 33,1 million although Apple reported them as3 5.1 in their quarters results..
Re this last quarter both IDC and Strategy Analytics have Samsung ahead with only IHS iSuppli provisionally showing Apple in the lead. Getting out our old reliable calculator we reckon that a horrible average of the 4 has Samsung at 39.2 million v’s Apples 34.6 million.
A very valid point highlighted by Gartner is their dominance of the smartphone market. with “ … Apple and Samsung, raising their combined share to 49.3 percent, up from 29.3 percent in the first quarter of 2011 …”
On the SmartTV front Strategy Analytics have done a survey in the US, France, Germany, Italy and the UK and discovered “ …that nearly half of existing iPhone users would be very or somewhat likely to buy an Apple iTV soon after its launch” . They equate the time frame to year one.
Using our spreadsheet in preference to our tried and trusted calculator this time:
|Cumulative||US & Europe||Potential||Potential|
|to Q1 2012||sales six||year one TV’s||year one TV’s|
|millions(mn)||months ended||units mn||Revenues $mn|
|March 31 2012||at $1.000|
|iPhone unit sales||218.1|
|Retirals & other||15.0%||-19.5|
|Possible TV sales||53.0||53,035|
WOW! So this might mean 53 million unit TV sales in year 1 and revenues of $53 billion taking account of the lower price preference whereby “ ….35 percent of surveyed US consumers indicate willingness to pay $1000 or more for an Apple-branded TV, only 14 percent would be willing to pay any more than $1600.”
So let’s have a few reality checks.
- Apple per last quarters worldwide mobile sales from Gartner has about 8% of the total market. Lets optimistically say the TV market in a year or 2 might be 275 million pa. hmm down to 20 million ish
- The iPhone has been around since 2007. In its first year (4 quarters) a little over 5 million units were sold.
- The iPad Apple’s quickest growing product introduction per Tim Cook achieved sales of 19.5 million in the first 4 quarters
Our complete guess would be that anything over 10 million units in year one would be exceptional. Price wise we will be surprised if it is not nearer $1,500 than $1,000 although $1,249 is a possible!
We shall see!