dot-UK registrations, and CBI growth pick up predict a recession lite!

 

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Nominet  have just published their April registrations and, we believe they show a marked improvement on the disappointing March figures.

I.co.uk April 2012 dot-uk new registrations
Thousands
April ’12 Growth Growth March ’12   April ’11
   # last mth yr-on-yr    #    #
Month
* Adjusted 171.3 9.6% 7.3% 156.3 159.7
Unadjusted 165.5 -7.6% 7.3% 179.2 154.2
2012 to date
* Adjusted 680.3      n/a -1.2%      n/a 688.3
Unadjusted 722.0      n/a -1.5%      n/a 733.2
Sources: Nominet / I.co.uk
*For seasonality – experimental statistics


The *adjusted registrations show an increase of 9.6% in the month and 7.3% compared to last year. Cumulatively, again on an adjusted basis, they are now only 1.2% down compared to last month when they were down by 3.7%.

Total domains on their register are 10,089,480 (10.047,509) which on a countback basis comes to 64.9 (64.8) months new registrations.

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Nominet figures again don’t quite add up but we’re assuming their detailed analysis is correct and have adjusted their totals marginally!

 

 

 

 

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The comparative unadjusted graph is included again as is the moving annual total one where there is an encouraging increase in the month to 2.06 (2.05) million.

 

 

 

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Our forecast remains at over 2 million for the year and we might just be sensing a bit of a pick up.

 

 

 

Which rather neatly moves us onto the CBI’s latest forecast for the economy which predicts a flat quarter 2 followed by growth in the final half year.

dot-uk registrations from this month can be made for multiple years up to 10 and  probably the UK’s largest registrar is offering this facility for each of the 10 years.

In addition to this Nominet are in process of kicking off a “…. marketing campaign, set to roll out from May this year, …. driving growth in .uk by delivering and building a compelling .uk brand story for businesses and consumers.”.

So it is at least possible that there will be a “pick up” in dot-uk registrations this quarter which, whilst not off the chart, could certainly move them up the chart!

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Our registrations v’s GDP graph currently simply extrapolates April registrations through the second quarter without any allowance for this pick up.

We therefore, somewhat tentatively, believe that quarter 2 GDP could surprise at least the CBI by being positive and confirming our “recession lite”!

*Seasonality adjustment – As with the Office for National Statistics’ (ONS) qualification, our figures are (very) experimental – “Experimental statistics are those which are in the testing phase and are not yet fully developed. The main reason why the xxxxxxx are designated as experimental is that the methods and data sources are still being improved”. We would in our case likely go further with our caveats!

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