The difference between the dot-com new registrations and the comparatively weak dot-uk’s over the last 6 months is quite remarkable.
|New registrations 6 months ended 31 March 2012|
|Increase:||Year on year||26.4%||-4.9%|
|Previous 6 months||24.4%||-0.1%|
The dot-com March registrations were the highest monthly total since May 2008 whilst the dot-uk figure was the lowest March number (typically a strong month) since 2009.
Whilst any direct linkage with GDP figures is debateable, at a macro economic level, we think, it is not improbable that a growing economy is likely to have higher new domain registration activity than a comparatively stagnant one.
We previously predicted that no UK double dip recession was likely based on the first couple of months dot-uk registrations and whilst March new registrations were exceptionally disappointing we think this is still the case although the likely growth rate has decreased somewhat and could well be below the CBI’s (annualised) Q1 forecast of 0.8%. We have updated the GDP figures for the latest ONS revisions.
Turning to the US situation our graph indicates the possibility of a quarter 1 annualised growth rate of greater than analysts expectations which seem to be around the 2.0%-2.5% level.
Both the UK and US GDP preliminary figures will be announced over the coming days and we will be interested to see both the absolute and comparative outcomes.
Dot-com registrations Hosterstats
Dot-uk registrations Nominet
UK GDP – The Office for National Statistics
USA GDP Bureau of Economic Analysis