Gartner and IDC published their PC quarter 1 shipment estimates yesterday and they are remarkably similar (apart from one being expressed in thousands of units!) with both showing a 2% increase on the same quarter of 2011.
IDC say “The results (a 2.3% increase) are slightly above IDC’s February projections of a 0.9% year-on-year decline” and Gartner also note that “These results exceed Gartner’s earlier projections of a 1.2 percent decline for the quarter.”
Using Gartner’s Tablet sales forecast and IDC’s March 2012 PC shipments forecast (yes we know we are comparing Apples and some other fruit!) we then simply added a linear trend line to see where they might cross over.
So based on these forecasts it could be 2021 or 2022.
Our view is that it could be well before that as we think the tablet sales this year are likely to be nearer 150 rather than 125 million. – we shall see!
Interactive chart info: Chart: Top 5 Worldwide PC Vendors, Market Share (unit shipments)Description: Source: IDC Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker, April 11, 2012Note: IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker provides PC market data for over 80 countries by vendor, form factor, brand, processor brand and speed, sales channel and user segment. The research includes historical and forecast trend analysis as well as price band and installed base data.For more information, or to subscribe to the research, please contact Kathy Nagamine at 1-650-350-6423 or firstname.lastname@example.org.Further detail about this tracker