IDC have looked at smart connected devices as a “family” projecting growth rates through 2016. We have compared their and Apple’s actuals (extracted from their quarterly SEC filings ) for 2010 and 2011.
IDC forecast total unit shipments of 1,877 million by 2016 with iOS based devices having a 17.3% market share, which implies 325 million devices. As these are all likely to be Apple products this represents an increase of 113%.
The platform markets share changes from 2011 to 2016 IDC envisage as being:
“Android’s growth is tied directly to the propagation of lower-priced devices,” said Tom Mainelli, IDC’s research director, Mobile Connected Devices. “So, while we expect dozens of hardware vendors to own some share in the Android market, many will find profitability difficult to sustain.”
So whilst Android and Windows will have at least dozens of vendors iOS will be Apples sole preserve and as such they are and will continue to be the leading worldwide supplier of smart devices.
In the Tablets v’s PC battle IDC do not foresee a “takeover” occurring and in fact envisage tablets reaching just under 40% of the volumes of PC’s by 2016 with we calculate an underlying compound annual growth rate of around 23.5%.
We wonder if this might be an underestimate, particularly if some of the educational aspirations of Governments such as Thailand‘s and India’s result in low priced product availability for students in a large number of countries including China.
The other family member who will likely join at a slightly later date of course is the Smart TV! There are some rumours around that Apple’s version may now not appear until 2013.
We shall see