Apple shares drop nearly 10% – sort of!

“A single trade for 100 shares executed on a Bats venue briefly sent Apple down to $542.80, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The order was executed at 10:57 a.m. New York time (23 March). Two more transactions, which sent the stock back above $598, were made before the halt. The stock stayed around that level once trading resumed five minutes later.” Bloomberg

And our favourite headline “Apple goes Bats!

Anyway back to the serious stuff – Time for our update on Apples share price movement following the launch and first sales of the new iPad a week past yesterday.

The analysts/commentators you may recall came up with some historical analysis which indicated price rises up to a new device/iPad going on sale followed by some weakness in the following week after it goes on sale.

 

 

So this is how it ended up:

  • Between launch and sale – Actual1 to on-sale + 9.9%
  • Week before on-sale – Actual2 to on-sale + 8.0%
  • Week after on-sale – Actual3 to week after on- sale +2.4%

 

 

 

So history repeats itself x 2 and x 3ish on the first two events but the jury was discharged late Sunday night re the latter price movement as there was of course, on Monday 19 March, what one might call a fundamental event that invalidates any conclusion. As we noted elsewhere the share price moved up $15.53 from Friday close to Mondays close  (it must be said though without huge volumes). If the whole of this rise were to be attributed to the Dividend & Buyback announcements then maybe just maybe one might say there could have been a marginal fall but………

Actual1 The closing price on 6th March the day prior to the media event was $530.26. At the actual start (10am PST) of the event the price was $535.16. We have used a rounded average of the two of $533 as the “launch” price.

Actual2 The closing price on 8th March was $541.99. We are using this as the start point for the week before on-sale.

Actual3 The on-sale price which is the closing price on 15th March was $585.56.

The week after on-sale price (ie the closing price on 22nd March) was $599.34. 


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