IHS iSuppli published their research on quarter 4 tablet shipments last week. They estimate Kindle Fires at 3.9 million which is lower than certain other estimates including one analyst who has them as high as 6 million.
Amazon themselves have only come out in press releases/holiday facts/results announcements with global statements such as:
- November 28 2011 - “Even before the busy holiday shopping weekend, we’d already sold millions of the new Kindle family and Kindle Fire was the bestselling product across all of Amazon.com. Black Friday was the best ever for the Kindle family – customers purchased 4X as many Kindle devices as they did last Black Friday – and last year was a great year”
- December 15 2011 - “Kindle Fire is the most successful product we’ve ever launched – it’s the bestselling product across all of Amazon for 11 straight weeks, we’ve already sold millions of units, and we’re building millions more to meet the high demand. In fact, demand is accelerating – Kindle Fire sales increased week over week for each of the past three weeks.”
- December 29 2011 - “Throughout December, customers purchased well over 1 million Kindle devices per week. The new Kindle family held the top three spots on the Amazon.com best seller charts – #1: Kindle Fire, #2: Kindle Touch, #3: Kindle.”
- January 31 2012 - “During the nine-week holiday period ending December 31, 2011, Kindle unit sales, including both the Kindle Fire and e-reader devices, increased 177% over the same period last year.”
So that looks like a rather complex equation to us, and to date no solution has been found, but we may persevere! The minimum is “millions” ie 2. Our guess remains at 4.0 – 4.5 million.
In iSuppli’s press release they reckon Apple was competing with itself ie iPad2 v’s iPhone 4S. The same could be said of amazon’s Kindles with the Fire, and the Touch/ basic Kindle.
Whilst we’re sure some cannibalising takes place we think it’s likely pretty limited on the Apple front. Once we can get hold of a Kindle Fire we’ll let you know whether we’ve thrown away our other Kindle!
Update 2.30pm Quarter 1 2012 shipments
Underlying our guess of 150mn for the year was 16mn in the quarter but with far less iPad’s & many more Kindle Fires and others.
Update (2) 5.00pm GMT $199 NOOK tablet announced
Barnes & Noble have just announced their $199 Nook tablet it has 8GB v’s 16GB on their previous offering which had a $249 price tag. This may hot up the tablet wars! Nooks like Kindle Fires are currently not available in the UK.
B & N also announced their results for the quarter to 28 January which missed analysts expectations. Their shares (BKS) are virtually unchanged at present but drifting lower. Amazon (AMZN) are down just under $1 (0.5% ish). In other news Apple (AAPL) shares are up 2.25% currently standing at $513.