UK GDP positive – no double dip

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The CBI  today have released their Economic Forecast in which they “…  expect 0.9% GDP growth in 2012, a little down from November’s forecast (1.2%), mainly reflecting the impact from the GDP contraction in the fourth quarter of last year. Modest growth of 2.0% is predicted in 2013.

Quarter-on-quarter growth will remain fragile in the first two quarters of this year (0.2%, 0.2%), improving modestly in the second half of the year (0.6%, 0.5%), as inflationary pressures ease.”

On a provisional basis, based on our forecast for seasonally adjusted quarter 1 of .UK new registrations we tend to agree. Our “view” is that GDP might just be greater than the CBI forecast for this quarter.

As previously mentioned there has been some noticeable tracking of annualised quarter-on-quarter GDP and the comparable figures for new .UK domain registrations.

This is also apparent on the seasonally adjusted figures in our graphic.

We have forecast from January’s adjusted actual a quarterly forecast based on the previous historic data (past performance does not of course guarantee future results). We have used this average of an increase on quarter 4’s actuals of 33.2% (it has varied from 15% to 49%).

*Seasonality adjustment – As with the Office for National Statistics’ (ONS) qualification, our figures are (very) experimental – “Experimental statistics are those which are in the testing phase and are not yet fully developed. The main reason why the xxxxxxx are designated as experimental is that the methods and data sources are still being improved”. We would in our case likely go further with our caveats!

Basic data sources – Nominet  ONS

CBI economic_forecast_13_february_2012 pdf   More information on their forecasts

 

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