Following yesterdays post we have had a look at the UK annualised quarterly GDP and Dot-uk registrations.
A fairly obvious recurring peak in quarterly registrations in Q1 each year preceded by a comparatively low final quarter is apparent. We may have a look at this seasonality and test a series of adjustments in the future.
Unlike the US & World GDP quarterly movements, to us, there appears to be little correlation between the two variables over much of the timeframe. There does though appear to be a quite recent tracking between them from Q3 2010.
Extrapolating this into the 4th quarter would imply a reduced annualised GDP figure compared to Q3 and it could go beyond an annualised reduction of 2% ie a headline figure for the quarter of more than -0.5%.
We shall see!
UK – GDP – Percentage change latest quarter on previous quarter annualised – Office for National Statistics
Dot-uk registrations – Nominet