UK GDP growth to slow in last quarter?

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Following yesterdays post we have had a look at the UK annualised quarterly GDP and Dot-uk registrations.

A fairly obvious recurring peak in quarterly registrations in Q1 each year preceded by a comparatively low final quarter is apparent. We may have a look at this seasonality and test a series of adjustments in the future.

Unlike the US & World GDP quarterly movements, to us, there appears to be little correlation between the two variables over much of the timeframe. There does though appear to be a quite recent tracking between them from Q3 2010.

Extrapolating this into the 4th quarter would imply a reduced annualised GDP figure compared to Q3 and it could go beyond an annualised reduction of 2% ie a headline figure for the quarter of more than -0.5%.

We shall see!

Sources

UK – GDP – Percentage change latest quarter on previous quarter annualised – Office for National Statistics

Dot-uk registrations – Nominet

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